I was inspired to see "Up In The Air" partially due to all of the Golden Globe awards it has been nominated for (Best Actor, Supporting Actress (2), Picture, and Screenplay). Plus, I don't feel like there are too many interesting movies out right now.
Overall, I feel it was a very poignant movie "given our current economic climate" (I hate that term by the way, it is very overused). George Clooney's character travels the U.S. for a company that takes care of firing people. He travels constantly (at one point, he reveals he spent 46 days "at home" last year). Without giving too much away, the overall theme of the movie is "what is really important in life". While it was kind of uncomfortable to literally see like 50 people get fired, I enjoyed it. Stacey didn't like the ending and gave it 1/2 thumbs up. I don't need a "neat and tidy" ending as much, so I gave it 3/4 thumbs up.
On the way home, I had to think how I would handle being fired. Right now, I think I have as much job security as anyone could have. Our center's business is doing very well, especially G.O.C.E.C., and I am the only experienced person working there. But if I were ever fired, I think I would cry a little, try to ask why, and then quietly leave. I don't think I would be borderline violent, yell, or try to negotiate. I think understanding the relative importance of things is critical to keeping oneself grounded. To every life shattering problem, "there's a billion Chinese who don't care" ...or something. It may take a little while, it may take a long while, but everyone eventually moves on. Not just from losing your job, but from everything. And I think that developing that perspective, being able to understand how trivial some problems really are and to move on, is the way I've grown up most in the past two years.
Monday, January 18, 2010
If Mike played college basketball
...his name would be Mark Titus. Enjoy: http://clubtrillion.blogspot.com
(Especially the video he posted).
Strangely enough, I didn't hear about him on local news or around campus. I read about him on Sports Illustrated's website.
(Especially the video he posted).
Strangely enough, I didn't hear about him on local news or around campus. I read about him on Sports Illustrated's website.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Help
I can't believe it has almost been two years since I signed my car lease. I was looking back at my posts when I first got it and had a few laughs...
"I am actually more excited for Dontrell Willis than Miguel Cabrera." (Yes, I actually fucking said that).
In response to my criticism of the Atlanta Falcons cutting a ton of people on their roster:
"I love what the Falcons are doing! Get rid of all that garbage and let's build something new. Roddy White turned out to be the first decent receiver they've had in years, and if they get a Matt Ryan in the draft they'll have a Ryan/Turner/Norwood backfield. A young backfield, but it's something to build upon. I think they're taking the necessary steps." - Mike (frickin' genius)
My first reaction to the Sentra:
"So tonight I test drove my first car, the Nissan Sentra. The car handles very well - it has some revolutionary transmission so you can't feel it shift. I love the look of the Sentra - especially in black."
My next post:
"I am still really happy with my new car. That's all I have to say in this paragraph - I love it."
...and now I treat it like crap and it's covered in salt.
Anyway, I need to figure out what to get by March 1st. I don't want a new Sentra, I can't get a Scion tc because that is what Stacey drives. And I probably don't want to spend more than $20,000 (though I am looking to lease). I need suggestions!
"I am actually more excited for Dontrell Willis than Miguel Cabrera." (Yes, I actually fucking said that).
In response to my criticism of the Atlanta Falcons cutting a ton of people on their roster:
"I love what the Falcons are doing! Get rid of all that garbage and let's build something new. Roddy White turned out to be the first decent receiver they've had in years, and if they get a Matt Ryan in the draft they'll have a Ryan/Turner/Norwood backfield. A young backfield, but it's something to build upon. I think they're taking the necessary steps." - Mike (frickin' genius)
My first reaction to the Sentra:
"So tonight I test drove my first car, the Nissan Sentra. The car handles very well - it has some revolutionary transmission so you can't feel it shift. I love the look of the Sentra - especially in black."
My next post:
"I am still really happy with my new car. That's all I have to say in this paragraph - I love it."
...and now I treat it like crap and it's covered in salt.
Anyway, I need to figure out what to get by March 1st. I don't want a new Sentra, I can't get a Scion tc because that is what Stacey drives. And I probably don't want to spend more than $20,000 (though I am looking to lease). I need suggestions!
Saturday, January 02, 2010
Annual BCS Post
(Note: Most of this was written before the bowl season began, so at that point Florida hadn't obliterated Cincinnati. When you read this, consider the overall picture of the BCS and try not to get caught up in a specific situation.)
We all know that the BCS is monopolistic, unfair, biased, inept, etc. I am sick of sportswriters using the late November/early December timeframe to write their own variation of the same column each year. However, it is too interesting of a sports story to ignore it. I want to focus on this year's rendition and a point that I have never heard from a single sportswriter. College Football this year, as it has in recent years, has given an unfair advantage to teams in the Big 12 and the SEC.
National Championship Games By Conference
When you look back at the history of the BCS National Championship, you have to throw out 2003 because there was not an undisputed champion and the top two teams didn't play in a BCS Championship game. Besides teams in the SEC and Big 12, only 5 teams have ever played in a national championship game (Miami, Virginia Tech, OSU, USC, Florida State). Below is a breakdown by conference of the number of teams represented.
Pac 10 2
Big 10 3
Big East 3 (Miami and Virginia Tech were B.E. teams at the time)
ACC 3
SEC 5
Big 12 6
People this season have been treating the SEC like the Big 12 was last year - as a power conference with several great teams. Last year, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma were truly exciting to watch week in and week out. It is a shame that only one of them could participate in the National Championship even though they each only lost to each other. Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Nebraska were strong teams as well, so it was understandable that one spot in the National Championship game was reserved for the winner of the Big 12 even though USC and Penn State each only lost one game as well.
This year, the BCS voters and the media had the same attitude for the winner of the SEC championship game even though Cincinnati finished undefeated as well. Outside of Florida and Alabama, however, LSU has 3 losses, Mississippi has 4, and a whole bunch have 5. That is hardly the competitive level of a "power conference" that deserves an "automatic pass" to the national championship game. When you consider how the different conferences have performed this bowl season, the Mountain West Conference is 4-0, Big East is 4-1, and the Big 10 is 3-2 while the Big 12 is 3-3 and SEC is 4-4 (As of post time - 7:30pm on 1/2). Those hardly indicate the strength of the Big 12 and SEC this year.
Looking at the list of national championship competitors, you'll notice that none of the current Big East teams have ever made it there. I think this is a major reason why Cincinnati wasn't ever seriously considered for the the National Championship game this year. (Again, I agree Alabama and Texas are probably the two best teams. However, there is something wrong when Cincinnati was never really considered.)
Teams Benefit/Hurt From BCS Voting By Conference
I think it is important to look deeper into the history to consider situations where controversial BCS voting has benefitted teams in certain conferences and hurt others. To define the terms of "benefit" and "hurt", I have used the following criteria:
-A team benefits if they had the same record at the end of the regular season as another but made it into the championship game. The contrary team(s) are considered hurt by the system.
-I don't consider a team "hurt" if they lost to one of the teams in the championship game.
-The same is true if they lost to another team with same number of losses as themselves because they have less of an argument to be there.
-While I respect TCU, Utah, and Boise State, I am only considering BCS Conference teams because those are the competitive conferences and those 6 conferences are supposed to be on equal footing. I think the system should be changed to allow them to participate more, but that is a whole 'nother post.
Using that criteria, here's a look at the history of the BCS championships. The rankings used are the final regular season AP rankings.
1998 - #1 Tennessee (0 losses) over #2 Florida State (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: OSU, UCLA, Kansas State, Arizona (lost to UCLA), Wisconsin (lost to OSU),
1999 - #1 Florida State (0 losses) over #2 Virginia Tech (0 losses)
2000 - #1 Oklahoma (0 losses) over #3 Florida State (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: Miami (Beat FSU), Washington, Oregon State (lost to Washington), Virginia Tech (lost to Miami)
2001 - #1 Miami (0 losses) over #4 Nebraska (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: Oregon, Maryland, Illinois
2002 - #2 OSU (0 losses) over #1 Miami (0 losses)
2003 - #2 LSU (1 loss) over #3 Oklahoma (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: USC, Michigan
(Although, remember we are throwing out 2003 since there was a split national championship)
2004 - #1 USC (0 losses) over #2 Oklahoma (0 losses)
Other 0 loss: Auburn
2005 - #2 Texas (0 losses) over #1 USC (0 losses)
2006 - #2 Florida (1 loss) over #1 OSU (0 losses)
Other 1 loss: USC, Louisville, Wisconsin, Michigan (lost to OSU)
2007 - #2 LSU (2 losses) over #1 OSU (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: Kansas
Other 2 losses: Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech, USC, West Virginia, Arizona State (lost to USC), Missouri (lost to Oklahoma)
2008 - #1 Florida (1 loss) over #2 Oklahoma (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: USC, Penn State, Alabama (lost to Florida), (Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma each lost to each other)
2009 - #1 Alabama (0 loss) meets #2 Texas (0 loss)
Other 0 loss: Cincinnati
Of the 12 years, there have been 3 without controversy among BCS conference teams. That brings the final "Benefit vs. Hurt" tally to:
Benefit:
SEC 4
Big 10 1
Pac 10 1
Big 12 4
Big East 0
ACC 2
Hurt:
SEC 2
Big 10 4
Pac 10 6
Big 12 3
Big East 4
ACC 2
The system has clearly helped the SEC and Big 12 whenever one of their teams has an equal record as a team from another conference because of a perceived superiority among voters. The Big East, Big 10, and Pac 10 have been slighted as a result. When teams play a 12 game schedule, roughly 75% of which is comprised of conference games, how can we truly compare the skill level of the BCS conferences against one another? I think it is not surprising that the Pac 10 has been hurt the most and demonstrates the East Coast bias in college football (particularly against teams not named USC). Consider another aspect of the 2009 college football season, the Heisman Trophy race.
The Heisman Race
RB A: 1736 yards, 26 TDs, 5.6 yds/carry
RB B: 1542 yards, 15 TDs, 6.2 yds/carry
RB C: 1145 yards, 11 TDs, 5.7 yds/carry
Quick - if you chose a RB to give your Heisman vote to, which one is the best based on their regular season stats??
Ok, this one was obvious. If you've been following college football closely enough this season, you can guess that A was Toby Gerhart and B was Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. Running back C was CJ Spiller, who finished 6th in Heisman voting and received 26 first place votes despite finishing 28th in the NCAA in rushing yards and tied for 38th in rushing TDs. The Heisman race, in my opinion, has been rendered completely irrelevant since Jason White, Chris Weinke, and Eric Crouch won the award. Recently, it has been awarded to the best player on the best two teams, as evidenced by the fact that only 2 people in the past 10 years have won the award without making an appearances in the national championship game (Tim Tebow and Carson Palmer). Predictably, half of the last 14 Heisman trophy winners have come from the SEC or Big 12.
The Bowl System Defense
The bowl system has become a complete farce. College presidents and other BCS proponents argue that it is a great tradition in sports. You tell me what is really involved when the Flomax Bowl Update provides all of the scores from Capital One Bowl Week games, including the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. They have watered down the system to the point where we have mediocre teams playing games in mediocre cities (Toronto, Birmingham, St. Petersburg) sponsored by mediocre companies (I'm talking to you, Beef O'Bradys and San Diego County Credit Union). The rule used to be that teams must have a winning record to be bowl eligible. Now, you can go 6-6 (You can watch the Insight Bowl that features two of them!). Our very own Michigan State even has a losing record against Division I-A teams! Some teams don't even seem to want to go to a bowl game. Notre Dame declined any invitation because of their "unique circumstances" and rumor had it that MSU was privately campaigning for a trip to the Pizza Bowl to save on costs and increase revenue possibilities. Consider also the number of players that are ineligible for bowl games due to academic and disciplinary reasons (again, MSU boasts 8 plus the ones we kicked off the team earlier this season). Add that to the coaching carousel that occurs at the end of the season and you have many teams that appear to be shells of their regular season rosters. Of the 40 bowl games this season, I feel there are only a solid 10-15 that appear to be interesting games.
Of all of the factors that could lead to a playoff system (pressures from Congress, undefeated teams like Cincinnati being shut out, growing dissatisfaction from fans), I feel that the aspect that is most likely to lead to a playoff system is the current economic climate. After all, money is the major reason why we have so many bowl games. Companies are starting to pull back expenses everywhere and one of the first things to be cut are sponsorships. This year, Pepsi has cut all of their Super Bowl ads. Car companies, some of the most heavily invested brands in sports advertising, have been forced to drop most of their sponsorships (including the Motor City Bowl). Fans with less discretionary spending are less likely to make the trip and buy tickets to a game that is considered a disappointment for their team. The answer for athletic departments and college presidents could be a smaller number of bowls and a small playoff system. While there will always be a debate over who was left out no matter the size of a playoff, giving more teams a chance at the championship will reduce the level of controversy and will reduce the conference bias that favors the 24 teams in the SEC and Big 12. An 8 team playoff would allow the 6 BCS-Conference Champions and two additional teams an even playing level for the title without causing a serious disruption to the current system.
We all know that the BCS is monopolistic, unfair, biased, inept, etc. I am sick of sportswriters using the late November/early December timeframe to write their own variation of the same column each year. However, it is too interesting of a sports story to ignore it. I want to focus on this year's rendition and a point that I have never heard from a single sportswriter. College Football this year, as it has in recent years, has given an unfair advantage to teams in the Big 12 and the SEC.
National Championship Games By Conference
When you look back at the history of the BCS National Championship, you have to throw out 2003 because there was not an undisputed champion and the top two teams didn't play in a BCS Championship game. Besides teams in the SEC and Big 12, only 5 teams have ever played in a national championship game (Miami, Virginia Tech, OSU, USC, Florida State). Below is a breakdown by conference of the number of teams represented.
Pac 10 2
Big 10 3
Big East 3 (Miami and Virginia Tech were B.E. teams at the time)
ACC 3
SEC 5
Big 12 6
People this season have been treating the SEC like the Big 12 was last year - as a power conference with several great teams. Last year, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma were truly exciting to watch week in and week out. It is a shame that only one of them could participate in the National Championship even though they each only lost to each other. Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Nebraska were strong teams as well, so it was understandable that one spot in the National Championship game was reserved for the winner of the Big 12 even though USC and Penn State each only lost one game as well.
This year, the BCS voters and the media had the same attitude for the winner of the SEC championship game even though Cincinnati finished undefeated as well. Outside of Florida and Alabama, however, LSU has 3 losses, Mississippi has 4, and a whole bunch have 5. That is hardly the competitive level of a "power conference" that deserves an "automatic pass" to the national championship game. When you consider how the different conferences have performed this bowl season, the Mountain West Conference is 4-0, Big East is 4-1, and the Big 10 is 3-2 while the Big 12 is 3-3 and SEC is 4-4 (As of post time - 7:30pm on 1/2). Those hardly indicate the strength of the Big 12 and SEC this year.
Looking at the list of national championship competitors, you'll notice that none of the current Big East teams have ever made it there. I think this is a major reason why Cincinnati wasn't ever seriously considered for the the National Championship game this year. (Again, I agree Alabama and Texas are probably the two best teams. However, there is something wrong when Cincinnati was never really considered.)
Teams Benefit/Hurt From BCS Voting By Conference
I think it is important to look deeper into the history to consider situations where controversial BCS voting has benefitted teams in certain conferences and hurt others. To define the terms of "benefit" and "hurt", I have used the following criteria:
-A team benefits if they had the same record at the end of the regular season as another but made it into the championship game. The contrary team(s) are considered hurt by the system.
-I don't consider a team "hurt" if they lost to one of the teams in the championship game.
-The same is true if they lost to another team with same number of losses as themselves because they have less of an argument to be there.
-While I respect TCU, Utah, and Boise State, I am only considering BCS Conference teams because those are the competitive conferences and those 6 conferences are supposed to be on equal footing. I think the system should be changed to allow them to participate more, but that is a whole 'nother post.
Using that criteria, here's a look at the history of the BCS championships. The rankings used are the final regular season AP rankings.
1998 - #1 Tennessee (0 losses) over #2 Florida State (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: OSU, UCLA, Kansas State, Arizona (lost to UCLA), Wisconsin (lost to OSU),
1999 - #1 Florida State (0 losses) over #2 Virginia Tech (0 losses)
2000 - #1 Oklahoma (0 losses) over #3 Florida State (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: Miami (Beat FSU), Washington, Oregon State (lost to Washington), Virginia Tech (lost to Miami)
2001 - #1 Miami (0 losses) over #4 Nebraska (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: Oregon, Maryland, Illinois
2002 - #2 OSU (0 losses) over #1 Miami (0 losses)
2003 - #2 LSU (1 loss) over #3 Oklahoma (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: USC, Michigan
(Although, remember we are throwing out 2003 since there was a split national championship)
2004 - #1 USC (0 losses) over #2 Oklahoma (0 losses)
Other 0 loss: Auburn
2005 - #2 Texas (0 losses) over #1 USC (0 losses)
2006 - #2 Florida (1 loss) over #1 OSU (0 losses)
Other 1 loss: USC, Louisville, Wisconsin, Michigan (lost to OSU)
2007 - #2 LSU (2 losses) over #1 OSU (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: Kansas
Other 2 losses: Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech, USC, West Virginia, Arizona State (lost to USC), Missouri (lost to Oklahoma)
2008 - #1 Florida (1 loss) over #2 Oklahoma (1 loss)
Other 1 loss: USC, Penn State, Alabama (lost to Florida), (Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma each lost to each other)
2009 - #1 Alabama (0 loss) meets #2 Texas (0 loss)
Other 0 loss: Cincinnati
Of the 12 years, there have been 3 without controversy among BCS conference teams. That brings the final "Benefit vs. Hurt" tally to:
Benefit:
SEC 4
Big 10 1
Pac 10 1
Big 12 4
Big East 0
ACC 2
Hurt:
SEC 2
Big 10 4
Pac 10 6
Big 12 3
Big East 4
ACC 2
The system has clearly helped the SEC and Big 12 whenever one of their teams has an equal record as a team from another conference because of a perceived superiority among voters. The Big East, Big 10, and Pac 10 have been slighted as a result. When teams play a 12 game schedule, roughly 75% of which is comprised of conference games, how can we truly compare the skill level of the BCS conferences against one another? I think it is not surprising that the Pac 10 has been hurt the most and demonstrates the East Coast bias in college football (particularly against teams not named USC). Consider another aspect of the 2009 college football season, the Heisman Trophy race.
The Heisman Race
RB A: 1736 yards, 26 TDs, 5.6 yds/carry
RB B: 1542 yards, 15 TDs, 6.2 yds/carry
RB C: 1145 yards, 11 TDs, 5.7 yds/carry
Quick - if you chose a RB to give your Heisman vote to, which one is the best based on their regular season stats??
Ok, this one was obvious. If you've been following college football closely enough this season, you can guess that A was Toby Gerhart and B was Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. Running back C was CJ Spiller, who finished 6th in Heisman voting and received 26 first place votes despite finishing 28th in the NCAA in rushing yards and tied for 38th in rushing TDs. The Heisman race, in my opinion, has been rendered completely irrelevant since Jason White, Chris Weinke, and Eric Crouch won the award. Recently, it has been awarded to the best player on the best two teams, as evidenced by the fact that only 2 people in the past 10 years have won the award without making an appearances in the national championship game (Tim Tebow and Carson Palmer). Predictably, half of the last 14 Heisman trophy winners have come from the SEC or Big 12.
The Bowl System Defense
The bowl system has become a complete farce. College presidents and other BCS proponents argue that it is a great tradition in sports. You tell me what is really involved when the Flomax Bowl Update provides all of the scores from Capital One Bowl Week games, including the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. They have watered down the system to the point where we have mediocre teams playing games in mediocre cities (Toronto, Birmingham, St. Petersburg) sponsored by mediocre companies (I'm talking to you, Beef O'Bradys and San Diego County Credit Union). The rule used to be that teams must have a winning record to be bowl eligible. Now, you can go 6-6 (You can watch the Insight Bowl that features two of them!). Our very own Michigan State even has a losing record against Division I-A teams! Some teams don't even seem to want to go to a bowl game. Notre Dame declined any invitation because of their "unique circumstances" and rumor had it that MSU was privately campaigning for a trip to the Pizza Bowl to save on costs and increase revenue possibilities. Consider also the number of players that are ineligible for bowl games due to academic and disciplinary reasons (again, MSU boasts 8 plus the ones we kicked off the team earlier this season). Add that to the coaching carousel that occurs at the end of the season and you have many teams that appear to be shells of their regular season rosters. Of the 40 bowl games this season, I feel there are only a solid 10-15 that appear to be interesting games.
Of all of the factors that could lead to a playoff system (pressures from Congress, undefeated teams like Cincinnati being shut out, growing dissatisfaction from fans), I feel that the aspect that is most likely to lead to a playoff system is the current economic climate. After all, money is the major reason why we have so many bowl games. Companies are starting to pull back expenses everywhere and one of the first things to be cut are sponsorships. This year, Pepsi has cut all of their Super Bowl ads. Car companies, some of the most heavily invested brands in sports advertising, have been forced to drop most of their sponsorships (including the Motor City Bowl). Fans with less discretionary spending are less likely to make the trip and buy tickets to a game that is considered a disappointment for their team. The answer for athletic departments and college presidents could be a smaller number of bowls and a small playoff system. While there will always be a debate over who was left out no matter the size of a playoff, giving more teams a chance at the championship will reduce the level of controversy and will reduce the conference bias that favors the 24 teams in the SEC and Big 12. An 8 team playoff would allow the 6 BCS-Conference Champions and two additional teams an even playing level for the title without causing a serious disruption to the current system.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Coming soon....
Since we don't live in Knob Hill anymore, I think it's time to change our fantasy league name. In light of our performance in recent years, Stacey and I would like to invite you to participate in the Glatz Family Invitational Fantasy Footall League in 2010! To answer your question, no, I am not going to stop enjoying this.
Anyway, I am excited to announce that I have been working on a post about the BCS and the bowl system for about a month. This will be a completely new argument about the BCS that I have never heard before. It will be very long, full of statistics, and make you question how I spend my free time. It will be legen...
Anyway, I am excited to announce that I have been working on a post about the BCS and the bowl system for about a month. This will be a completely new argument about the BCS that I have never heard before. It will be very long, full of statistics, and make you question how I spend my free time. It will be legen...
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
2009 - The Year of the Zoo
Although I was disappointed I didn't make the finals of our fantasy league, I was happy for Stacey and Kevin to have some success. It was exciting to see the finals come down to OT and Kevin standing a 40 yard Adrian Peterson TD away from victory. Since we live far apart, I wanted to share a little bit of Stacey's victory. But first, I want to take a look back at Mike's analysis of her team after the draft.
Zoo Tycoons
1) Are McNabb and Roethlisberger reliable enough? Both play in reasonably difficult divisions, and both have strong defenses with capable running games. The chances for 300+ yard games with 3 TDs are less with both of these guys, but they do have some decent receivers to throw to. Can they do it consistently?
Yes, they ended up being the #11 and #9 QBs this year respectively. Roethlisberger's 30 in Week 15 and McNabb's 23 in Week 16 were huge difference makers during the playoffs.
2) Will DeAngelo and MJD produce as top-5 backs? There are differing opinions on both. There are questions (time shares, workload concerns) about both, but at the very least they should be decent. If they are top-5, however, watch out…
Yes and no. MJD was the #2 fantasy back this year, but Williams was 12th and surprisingly ended up slightly worse than teammate Jonathan Stewart due to periodic injuries. MJD produced 9 double digit games, including 3 performances of 20+ points.
3) After Andre Johnson…who will step up? Antonio Bryant has been hurt and Tampa seems to be going towards a ground attack. Avery is in St. Louis with a dismal offense. Colston is in a great offense, but the ball gets spread around to everyone. Will there be enough touches for him? Can she get legit production from these guys?
Johnson finished as the #3 WR, but Marques Colston stepped up as a solid #2 with 1000+ yards and 9 TDs. Stacey's #3 WR position was definitely one of her weakest positions on the team. Also, Visanthe Shiancoe didn't get a ton of yards, but he finished with the 3rd most TDs among TEs.
Stacey didn't make a lot of moves this season, but she had a strong draft (As did Kevin with Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers and Frank Gore). Her QBs held up through most of the season and MJD and Andre Johnson produced consistently. Even though she squeaked into the playoffs in week 14, I think she had a pretty solid team.
In the end, Adrian Peterson's fumble cost Minnesota the game and Kevin the championship.
I think she was equally excited to see Brett Favre lose the game and look very solemn.
And here's the 2009 Knob Hill Fantasy Champion, Zoo Tycoons! And the belt is staying in my house!! It was a fun season and I'm looking forward to next year.
I love the look on Boo's face, by the way. She's like "ooo - what's that?!"
Zoo Tycoons
1) Are McNabb and Roethlisberger reliable enough? Both play in reasonably difficult divisions, and both have strong defenses with capable running games. The chances for 300+ yard games with 3 TDs are less with both of these guys, but they do have some decent receivers to throw to. Can they do it consistently?
Yes, they ended up being the #11 and #9 QBs this year respectively. Roethlisberger's 30 in Week 15 and McNabb's 23 in Week 16 were huge difference makers during the playoffs.
2) Will DeAngelo and MJD produce as top-5 backs? There are differing opinions on both. There are questions (time shares, workload concerns) about both, but at the very least they should be decent. If they are top-5, however, watch out…
Yes and no. MJD was the #2 fantasy back this year, but Williams was 12th and surprisingly ended up slightly worse than teammate Jonathan Stewart due to periodic injuries. MJD produced 9 double digit games, including 3 performances of 20+ points.
3) After Andre Johnson…who will step up? Antonio Bryant has been hurt and Tampa seems to be going towards a ground attack. Avery is in St. Louis with a dismal offense. Colston is in a great offense, but the ball gets spread around to everyone. Will there be enough touches for him? Can she get legit production from these guys?
Johnson finished as the #3 WR, but Marques Colston stepped up as a solid #2 with 1000+ yards and 9 TDs. Stacey's #3 WR position was definitely one of her weakest positions on the team. Also, Visanthe Shiancoe didn't get a ton of yards, but he finished with the 3rd most TDs among TEs.
Stacey didn't make a lot of moves this season, but she had a strong draft (As did Kevin with Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers and Frank Gore). Her QBs held up through most of the season and MJD and Andre Johnson produced consistently. Even though she squeaked into the playoffs in week 14, I think she had a pretty solid team.
In the end, Adrian Peterson's fumble cost Minnesota the game and Kevin the championship.
I think she was equally excited to see Brett Favre lose the game and look very solemn.
And here's the 2009 Knob Hill Fantasy Champion, Zoo Tycoons! And the belt is staying in my house!! It was a fun season and I'm looking forward to next year.
I love the look on Boo's face, by the way. She's like "ooo - what's that?!"
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Bowl Predictions Sure To Go Wrong
Ranked in order from games I'm most confident to least confident.
USC over BC
Ohio over Marshall
Texas Tech over Michigan State
Nevada over SMU
Pitt over UNC
Houston over Air Force
Nebraska over Arizona
Arkansas over E Carolina
Miami over Wisconsin
Clemson over Kentucky
Auburn over Northwestern
Oregon State over BYU
Fresno State over Wyoming
UCF over Rutgers
Florida over Cincinnati
Central Michigan over Troy
Middle Tennessee State over Southern Miss
Oregon over Ohio State
LSU over Penn State
Utah over Cal
Oklahoma over Stanford
Georgia over Texas A&M
Navy over Missouri
Minnesota over Iowa State
South Carolina over UConn
BGSU over Idaho
Temple over UCLA
Virginia Tech over Tennessee
Southern Florida over Northern Illinois
Oklahoma State over Ole Miss
Florida State over WVU
Iowa over Georgia Tech
TCU over Boise State
Texas over Alabama
USC over BC
Ohio over Marshall
Texas Tech over Michigan State
Nevada over SMU
Pitt over UNC
Houston over Air Force
Nebraska over Arizona
Arkansas over E Carolina
Miami over Wisconsin
Clemson over Kentucky
Auburn over Northwestern
Oregon State over BYU
Fresno State over Wyoming
UCF over Rutgers
Florida over Cincinnati
Central Michigan over Troy
Middle Tennessee State over Southern Miss
Oregon over Ohio State
LSU over Penn State
Utah over Cal
Oklahoma over Stanford
Georgia over Texas A&M
Navy over Missouri
Minnesota over Iowa State
South Carolina over UConn
BGSU over Idaho
Temple over UCLA
Virginia Tech over Tennessee
Southern Florida over Northern Illinois
Oklahoma State over Ole Miss
Florida State over WVU
Iowa over Georgia Tech
TCU over Boise State
Texas over Alabama
Where Fantasy is Won and Lost
I've been working on this one for a while. Mike made a pretty good argument for the best draft moves and the worst draft moves, but I think the season is really won and lost in free agency moves. Here's a look at what I think are the best 5 moves for this season.
5. 9/14 - Add Percy Harvin, Drop Chris Henry (ipresstoocoolbuttons) and 10/20 - Add Percy Harvin, Drop Terrell Owens (Kevinvidious)
At the beginning of the season, many expected Henry to be the heir to Housh's production in Cincinnati. Grace caught on with Harvin for a few good weeks in the beginning of the season and Kevin took him over after a few week drought.
4. 10/30 - Add Vince Young, Drop Shaun Hill (Kevinvidious)
Ok, we were all wrong about VY this year. Kevin needed a solid number two QB and selected him before week 8. What has he done since? Scored double-digit fantasy points each week.
3. 10/18 - Add Miles Austin, Drop Roy Williams (Boston Massacre)
When I returned from my honeymoon, I figured that the guy who had a break out, 24 point game would be off the board. When I saw him still there, I found a reason to finally get rid of the very disappointing Roy Williams (who was one of my draft mistakes). Despite very limited playing time through the first quarter of the season, Austin has become the #4 WR overall.
2. 9/30 - Add Vernon Davis, Drop John Carlson (Boston Massacre)
After achieving 3.6 points in weeks 1 & 2 combined, Davis exploded for 16 points in Week 3. Since then, he has become the #1 TE this year.
1. 8/28 - Add Brett Favre, Drop Cedric Benson (Cumming From Behind)
It's not every year that the #3 player at the end of the year isn't drafted. Mike found a diamond in the FA rough and exploited it to 220+ points. I think this was the most important decisions anyone made all season.
On one final note, Mike applauded himself for drafting Brent Celek and called it the 10th best draft move. I agree Celek was a surpise at TE and kudos to him for picking up on that. However, Mike dropped him before the season began (9/1). After Celek put up 7.85, 5.20, and 11.20 in weeks 1-3, Mike picked him back up on 9/30. He had Celek for week's 5 (2.90) and 6 (3.75) before dropping him on 10/19. Celek only had .4 in week 7, but put up 9.05 and 7.95 in weeks 8 & 9. Mike began Celek's 3rd reign on his team on 11/12 and Celek scored 8.35 in week 10 (while on the bench). Weeks 11 (1.75) and 12 (1.65) forced Mike to drop him on 12/1. The next week, Week 13, Celek scored 6.8 points. Therefore, Celek's average while in 7 games of FA is 6.9 while his average for the 5 games Mike had him was 3.68 (in which he scored above 4 points only once). What I am getting at is this: smart move in drafting him, but you didn't stick with him through the bad times (which I assume is because you have the top TE for the past few years on your roster as well).
5. 9/14 - Add Percy Harvin, Drop Chris Henry (ipresstoocoolbuttons) and 10/20 - Add Percy Harvin, Drop Terrell Owens (Kevinvidious)
At the beginning of the season, many expected Henry to be the heir to Housh's production in Cincinnati. Grace caught on with Harvin for a few good weeks in the beginning of the season and Kevin took him over after a few week drought.
4. 10/30 - Add Vince Young, Drop Shaun Hill (Kevinvidious)
Ok, we were all wrong about VY this year. Kevin needed a solid number two QB and selected him before week 8. What has he done since? Scored double-digit fantasy points each week.
3. 10/18 - Add Miles Austin, Drop Roy Williams (Boston Massacre)
When I returned from my honeymoon, I figured that the guy who had a break out, 24 point game would be off the board. When I saw him still there, I found a reason to finally get rid of the very disappointing Roy Williams (who was one of my draft mistakes). Despite very limited playing time through the first quarter of the season, Austin has become the #4 WR overall.
2. 9/30 - Add Vernon Davis, Drop John Carlson (Boston Massacre)
After achieving 3.6 points in weeks 1 & 2 combined, Davis exploded for 16 points in Week 3. Since then, he has become the #1 TE this year.
1. 8/28 - Add Brett Favre, Drop Cedric Benson (Cumming From Behind)
It's not every year that the #3 player at the end of the year isn't drafted. Mike found a diamond in the FA rough and exploited it to 220+ points. I think this was the most important decisions anyone made all season.
On one final note, Mike applauded himself for drafting Brent Celek and called it the 10th best draft move. I agree Celek was a surpise at TE and kudos to him for picking up on that. However, Mike dropped him before the season began (9/1). After Celek put up 7.85, 5.20, and 11.20 in weeks 1-3, Mike picked him back up on 9/30. He had Celek for week's 5 (2.90) and 6 (3.75) before dropping him on 10/19. Celek only had .4 in week 7, but put up 9.05 and 7.95 in weeks 8 & 9. Mike began Celek's 3rd reign on his team on 11/12 and Celek scored 8.35 in week 10 (while on the bench). Weeks 11 (1.75) and 12 (1.65) forced Mike to drop him on 12/1. The next week, Week 13, Celek scored 6.8 points. Therefore, Celek's average while in 7 games of FA is 6.9 while his average for the 5 games Mike had him was 3.68 (in which he scored above 4 points only once). What I am getting at is this: smart move in drafting him, but you didn't stick with him through the bad times (which I assume is because you have the top TE for the past few years on your roster as well).
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Glimpse into the Past
Just for perspective, a sampling of news bits from when Charlie Weis was hired as Notre Dame's head coach.
"A widely-respected disciple of professional coaching standouts Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, Weis currently is the highly-regarded offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots (under Patriot head coach Belichick). He has played an integral role in New England's victories in two of the last three Super Bowls - and the Patriots currently own the best record in the NFL in 2004 at 12-1."
"Weis has been a winner everywhere he has coached - and he has received widespread notice as one of the most creative and innovative offensive coordinators in football."
"All along the way, Weis has displayed the ability to develop successful offensive players."
"Current New England Patriot wide receiver David Givens (he played for Notre Dame in 1998-2001) on Charlie Weis: "He's been a teacher and coach of high school kids and he's got so much experience coaching NFL players like myself. There's no doubt in my mind he would be an outstanding recruiter because he relates so well to young people. I can say this because I've played for Charlie and I played at Notre Dame. I understand the pressures of playing and the pressures the coaches had coaching us at Notre Dame. They're all things Charlie would do very well with."
"Former Notre Dame All-America quarterback and current ESPN analyst Joe Theismann on Charlie Weis: "I think Charlie Weis in the right man for the right job at the University of Notre Dame. He understands throwing the football. That's what this era of college football is today - the ability to put it in the air. He's been a student at Notre Dame so he knows the culture of the University. He's worked on a big stage, having been part of World Championships two of the last three years with the Patriots. He's very inventive - his offenses have included defensive ends at fullback and linebackers at tight end. He's inventive as well as creative. He's a man who will bring a quiet discipline to the program. I think it's a great hire."
http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/121204aae.html
I have nothing against Charlie Weis. I am not pretending I thought he was going to fail. He was the hottest head coach prospect for college OR the NFL in 2004 and it was a clear choice for Notre Dame to make. I bring this up because I think it is ridiculous that anyone is blaming him completely for their recent disappointments. Their program is broken because they've lost the prestige of playing for the Irish. High school players aren't impressed by Knute Rockne, Touchdown Jesus, or the Golden Dome. Brian Kelly has done well in three seasons at Cincinnati. But don't forget his success came with players that Mark Dantonio recruited.
"A widely-respected disciple of professional coaching standouts Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, Weis currently is the highly-regarded offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots (under Patriot head coach Belichick). He has played an integral role in New England's victories in two of the last three Super Bowls - and the Patriots currently own the best record in the NFL in 2004 at 12-1."
"Weis has been a winner everywhere he has coached - and he has received widespread notice as one of the most creative and innovative offensive coordinators in football."
"All along the way, Weis has displayed the ability to develop successful offensive players."
"Current New England Patriot wide receiver David Givens (he played for Notre Dame in 1998-2001) on Charlie Weis: "He's been a teacher and coach of high school kids and he's got so much experience coaching NFL players like myself. There's no doubt in my mind he would be an outstanding recruiter because he relates so well to young people. I can say this because I've played for Charlie and I played at Notre Dame. I understand the pressures of playing and the pressures the coaches had coaching us at Notre Dame. They're all things Charlie would do very well with."
"Former Notre Dame All-America quarterback and current ESPN analyst Joe Theismann on Charlie Weis: "I think Charlie Weis in the right man for the right job at the University of Notre Dame. He understands throwing the football. That's what this era of college football is today - the ability to put it in the air. He's been a student at Notre Dame so he knows the culture of the University. He's worked on a big stage, having been part of World Championships two of the last three years with the Patriots. He's very inventive - his offenses have included defensive ends at fullback and linebackers at tight end. He's inventive as well as creative. He's a man who will bring a quiet discipline to the program. I think it's a great hire."
http://www.und.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/121204aae.html
I have nothing against Charlie Weis. I am not pretending I thought he was going to fail. He was the hottest head coach prospect for college OR the NFL in 2004 and it was a clear choice for Notre Dame to make. I bring this up because I think it is ridiculous that anyone is blaming him completely for their recent disappointments. Their program is broken because they've lost the prestige of playing for the Irish. High school players aren't impressed by Knute Rockne, Touchdown Jesus, or the Golden Dome. Brian Kelly has done well in three seasons at Cincinnati. But don't forget his success came with players that Mark Dantonio recruited.
Glimpse into the Future
Irish No Longer Kelly Green December 11, 2013
After four tumultuous seasons, Notre Dame is once again looking for a new head football coach. Weeks of speculation of his ouster was confirmed when Brian Kelly was fired early Wednesday morning with one year remaining on his contract. The decision was made after Notre Dame's disappointing 7-5 season.
Kelly came to Notre Dame after leading Cincinnati to an undefeated 12-0 season in 2009. He was characterized by his skilled offenses and his ability to develop quarterback talent. He failed to bring turn the Fighting Irish into an offensive machine, however. Notre Dame ranked 64th this season in total offense.
In his four seasons as head coach of the Irish, Brian Kelly amassed an overall record of 26-23. His best season came in 2011 when he lead Notre Dame to a 9-4 record. He failed to carry this momentum into the 2012 season when Notre Dame finished with a disappointing 6-6 record. Notre Dame officials expect to begin interviewing candidates immediately.
After four tumultuous seasons, Notre Dame is once again looking for a new head football coach. Weeks of speculation of his ouster was confirmed when Brian Kelly was fired early Wednesday morning with one year remaining on his contract. The decision was made after Notre Dame's disappointing 7-5 season.
Kelly came to Notre Dame after leading Cincinnati to an undefeated 12-0 season in 2009. He was characterized by his skilled offenses and his ability to develop quarterback talent. He failed to bring turn the Fighting Irish into an offensive machine, however. Notre Dame ranked 64th this season in total offense.
In his four seasons as head coach of the Irish, Brian Kelly amassed an overall record of 26-23. His best season came in 2011 when he lead Notre Dame to a 9-4 record. He failed to carry this momentum into the 2012 season when Notre Dame finished with a disappointing 6-6 record. Notre Dame officials expect to begin interviewing candidates immediately.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Huh?
Can someone who watched the game explain this?
Bench:
Raymar Morgan, F 9min 0-4FG 0-4FT 1OREB 1REB 1AST 1STL 0BLK 1TO 2PF 0PTS
Delvon Roe, F 13min 0-2FG 5PF 0PTS
In Draymond Green and Derrick Nix I trust.
Nix: 15MIN 14REB 11PTS
(You're right, though, Mike - he needs to improve FT (1-5)
In other news...
"Curtis Granderson remains the talk of the town -- actually, the talk of the majors.
Newsday's Ken Davidoff reported Friday that the Angels are the latest team said to be in communications with Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski about a potential deal for the centerfielder. The Yankees, who have outfield openings with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon as free agents, quickly leapt to the top of the list coming out of the GM meetings this week. But Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune reported Friday "there's no question the Cubs have interest in the homegrown Granderson" who is from Chicago. Rogers said, however, it was unclear what kind of talks the Cubs have had with Dombrowski, who would not confirm reports about any specific players." - freep.com
What the heck is this??? Why are they going to get rid of Granderson? Apparently, young, homegrown talent isn't important anymore. Did Illitch decide he wants to stop investing in the Tigers? Ooo - maybe we can get an aging, slow, overpriced LF Johnny Damon in FA instead!! I don't care who the Tigers get rid of except for Granderson. Just like Tayshaun with the Pistons - feel free to clean house, but don't touch his room.
Bench:
Raymar Morgan, F 9min 0-4FG 0-4FT 1OREB 1REB 1AST 1STL 0BLK 1TO 2PF 0PTS
Delvon Roe, F 13min 0-2FG 5PF 0PTS
In Draymond Green and Derrick Nix I trust.
Nix: 15MIN 14REB 11PTS
(You're right, though, Mike - he needs to improve FT (1-5)
In other news...
"Curtis Granderson remains the talk of the town -- actually, the talk of the majors.
Newsday's Ken Davidoff reported Friday that the Angels are the latest team said to be in communications with Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski about a potential deal for the centerfielder. The Yankees, who have outfield openings with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon as free agents, quickly leapt to the top of the list coming out of the GM meetings this week. But Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune reported Friday "there's no question the Cubs have interest in the homegrown Granderson" who is from Chicago. Rogers said, however, it was unclear what kind of talks the Cubs have had with Dombrowski, who would not confirm reports about any specific players." - freep.com
What the heck is this??? Why are they going to get rid of Granderson? Apparently, young, homegrown talent isn't important anymore. Did Illitch decide he wants to stop investing in the Tigers? Ooo - maybe we can get an aging, slow, overpriced LF Johnny Damon in FA instead!! I don't care who the Tigers get rid of except for Granderson. Just like Tayshaun with the Pistons - feel free to clean house, but don't touch his room.
Monday, November 02, 2009
The Blind Side
This is the movie based on the book I was telling you guys about - "The Blind Side".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYC1ulLHD6Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khtBvQdxta4
I like the concept and Sandra Bullock's character, but I'm worried that it is a large dramatization of his life. I know Michael Oher said there were some things that were exaggerated in the book, so a second-hand rendition is going to be even further from the truth. (For example, I don't remember a part where she goes "down to the hood" and threatens some guy). Still, I know I'm going to see it soon after it comes out. My favorite part of the movie is going to be seeing Nick Saban in LSU gear - he'll do anything for money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYC1ulLHD6Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khtBvQdxta4
I like the concept and Sandra Bullock's character, but I'm worried that it is a large dramatization of his life. I know Michael Oher said there were some things that were exaggerated in the book, so a second-hand rendition is going to be even further from the truth. (For example, I don't remember a part where she goes "down to the hood" and threatens some guy). Still, I know I'm going to see it soon after it comes out. My favorite part of the movie is going to be seeing Nick Saban in LSU gear - he'll do anything for money.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Quick thoughts
-I was probably a little too quick to label "typical Spartans". Afterall, with a new quarterback and running back, expectations to maintain the performance of last year's team may have been too high. For the most part, we are a young team. I feel that I was dead on in declaring that the 3 game set against Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois would set the tone for the rest of the season. Cousins emerged as the starting (and finishing) QB and they won two of the three. I think the Michigan game really gave them the confidence that they needed for the rest of the season.
Here are my very unorganized thoughts on the Minnesota game:
-They were completely screwed by a horrible officiating crew. They issued the most penalities against Minnesota in a Big 10 game since 1957. Then, they awarded them the game by overturning a called completed catch and fumble by Minnesota with 6 minutes left to an incomplete pass. The game was 35-31 at that point and we would have had the ball in Minnesota's territory. Do the poor calls on both sides of the ball negate each other and create a "fair game"? Hell no. I think Chris L Rucker is getting a reputation as a dirty player because for the second week in a row he laid a receiver out by leading with his head. The biggest disappointment that I am seeing from the team in general is taking costly penalties that keep drives alive. The defense stopped them with less than 3 minutes to go to give us one last chance to win the game. Then the highly avoidable roughing the kicker penalty on the punt ended the game. We need more Keshawn Martin.
-After reading Mike's fantastic MSU basketball preview post, I am pretty worried about our schedule this season. It could act to challenge us so we're "battle ready" for the tournament. Or it could expose all of our weaknesses and pound them down. Florida, UNC, Gonzaga, Texas?? Who does that?
Here are my very unorganized thoughts on the Minnesota game:
-They were completely screwed by a horrible officiating crew. They issued the most penalities against Minnesota in a Big 10 game since 1957. Then, they awarded them the game by overturning a called completed catch and fumble by Minnesota with 6 minutes left to an incomplete pass. The game was 35-31 at that point and we would have had the ball in Minnesota's territory. Do the poor calls on both sides of the ball negate each other and create a "fair game"? Hell no. I think Chris L Rucker is getting a reputation as a dirty player because for the second week in a row he laid a receiver out by leading with his head. The biggest disappointment that I am seeing from the team in general is taking costly penalties that keep drives alive. The defense stopped them with less than 3 minutes to go to give us one last chance to win the game. Then the highly avoidable roughing the kicker penalty on the punt ended the game. We need more Keshawn Martin.
-After reading Mike's fantastic MSU basketball preview post, I am pretty worried about our schedule this season. It could act to challenge us so we're "battle ready" for the tournament. Or it could expose all of our weaknesses and pound them down. Florida, UNC, Gonzaga, Texas?? Who does that?
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Crossroads
"Typical Spartans" - adjective
1. relates to the performance of the Michigan State football team.
2. a pattern of losing easy games in the final minutes due to lack of effort, focus, and/or execution.
"That loss to Central Michigan was 'typical Spartans'".
3. the act of winning early in the season and having a letdown in October.
I am not trying to exaggerate the importance of the next 3 games, but this really is a pivotal point in their season. From one perspective, their 1-2 record isn't as bad as it sounds. They have lost their games on a last second field goal and 2 minute offense that was very close to producing a go-ahead TD or a game-tying field goal. They have lost by a combined 5 points. Their starting QB is the best in the Big 10 in QB Rating (14th overall), which happen to also stand as our rankings in passing YPG in the conference and nation. Between Nichol and Cousins, they've thrown 1 INT all season. Greg Jones is #3 in the country in tackles.
From another perspective, they are in worse shape than they have been in years. They lost to a MAC team at home, which brought up memories of similar early-season losses in years past to Cal in 2002, Louisiana Tech in 2003, and Rutgers in 2004. The next game was headed to be much more of a blowout until Michael Floyd broke his collarbone and Jimmy Clausen injured his foot. (Side note: I propose we call the broken collarbone the "Charles Rogers" much like an injured ulnar collateral ligament is the "Tommy John"). MSU ranks 81st in Rushing YPG. They have only recorded 5 sacks and 2 INTs. Our secondary can't stop anyone. We STILL have not settled on a QB and the WRs don't look in synch with the QBs as a result.
This season has defied the third part of my definition because their schedule is uncharacteristically difficult early in the season. We have not met my expectations, but they really do start their new season this Saturday. Over the next 3 weekends, Michigan State plays at Wisconsin (a game we won on a last second FG last year), has a tougher-than-expected game against U-M, and plays at Illinois. If they were to somehow win all three of these games, they make a very strong argument for winning the Big 10. I assume they would at worst finish 3rd barring a huge letdown later in the season. If the opposite were to occur, which I think is entirely possible, they will stand at an abismal 1-5 on October 10th. To put this into perspective, here are the dates over the past 7 seasons when they lost their 5th game.
2002 Oct. 26
2003 Dec. 29th (Bowl Game)
2004 Nov. 6th
2005 Nov. 12th
2006 Oct. 28th
2007 Nov. 3rd
2008 We lost our 4th game against Georgia in the Citrus Bowl on 1/1/09
Playing difficult Big-10 teams this early in the season is rare, but disasterous when it occurs. Looking over this history, our schedule is most akin to that in 2005. After defeating Kent St and Hawaii at home they played at Notre Dame and won. They blew out an easy Illinois team on the road to make it 4-0. However, they lost a close game at home against Michigan and again against OSU after the bye week. Things took the "typical Spartan" downward spiral and they lost 4 of the last 5 to bring the season record to 5-6. 2006 was very similar as well with their Big 10 schedule opening home against Illinois, at Michigan, and home against OSU. That season, John L Smith's last, they finished 4-8 overall, 1-7 in the Big 10.
To prevent things from spiraling downhill, I think that Kirk Cousins must immediately be named the starting (and ending and everything in between) QB so he can get all of the reps with the first team. They must also begin game planning to defend against the spread offense immediately after the Wisconsin game. U-M, Illinois, and Northwestern, our next 3 opponents after this weekend, will rely on mobile QBs (to varying degrees) and spreading out the field. It could be a blessing to face them back-to-back-to-back since the defensive strategy can be improved each week. Finally, they have to find someone who can defend passes. I think the player we have missed most from last year, other than Javon Ringer, is Otis Wiley.
Compared to my preseason predictions, I think U-M is looking more like a Loss, but Minnesota and Wisconsin appear to have strong potential for MSU to be victorious. I don't believe they will start 1-5, but I think we should be looking forward to a low level bowl game and their potential for next season.
1. relates to the performance of the Michigan State football team.
2. a pattern of losing easy games in the final minutes due to lack of effort, focus, and/or execution.
"That loss to Central Michigan was 'typical Spartans'".
3. the act of winning early in the season and having a letdown in October.
I am not trying to exaggerate the importance of the next 3 games, but this really is a pivotal point in their season. From one perspective, their 1-2 record isn't as bad as it sounds. They have lost their games on a last second field goal and 2 minute offense that was very close to producing a go-ahead TD or a game-tying field goal. They have lost by a combined 5 points. Their starting QB is the best in the Big 10 in QB Rating (14th overall), which happen to also stand as our rankings in passing YPG in the conference and nation. Between Nichol and Cousins, they've thrown 1 INT all season. Greg Jones is #3 in the country in tackles.
From another perspective, they are in worse shape than they have been in years. They lost to a MAC team at home, which brought up memories of similar early-season losses in years past to Cal in 2002, Louisiana Tech in 2003, and Rutgers in 2004. The next game was headed to be much more of a blowout until Michael Floyd broke his collarbone and Jimmy Clausen injured his foot. (Side note: I propose we call the broken collarbone the "Charles Rogers" much like an injured ulnar collateral ligament is the "Tommy John"). MSU ranks 81st in Rushing YPG. They have only recorded 5 sacks and 2 INTs. Our secondary can't stop anyone. We STILL have not settled on a QB and the WRs don't look in synch with the QBs as a result.
This season has defied the third part of my definition because their schedule is uncharacteristically difficult early in the season. We have not met my expectations, but they really do start their new season this Saturday. Over the next 3 weekends, Michigan State plays at Wisconsin (a game we won on a last second FG last year), has a tougher-than-expected game against U-M, and plays at Illinois. If they were to somehow win all three of these games, they make a very strong argument for winning the Big 10. I assume they would at worst finish 3rd barring a huge letdown later in the season. If the opposite were to occur, which I think is entirely possible, they will stand at an abismal 1-5 on October 10th. To put this into perspective, here are the dates over the past 7 seasons when they lost their 5th game.
2002 Oct. 26
2003 Dec. 29th (Bowl Game)
2004 Nov. 6th
2005 Nov. 12th
2006 Oct. 28th
2007 Nov. 3rd
2008 We lost our 4th game against Georgia in the Citrus Bowl on 1/1/09
Playing difficult Big-10 teams this early in the season is rare, but disasterous when it occurs. Looking over this history, our schedule is most akin to that in 2005. After defeating Kent St and Hawaii at home they played at Notre Dame and won. They blew out an easy Illinois team on the road to make it 4-0. However, they lost a close game at home against Michigan and again against OSU after the bye week. Things took the "typical Spartan" downward spiral and they lost 4 of the last 5 to bring the season record to 5-6. 2006 was very similar as well with their Big 10 schedule opening home against Illinois, at Michigan, and home against OSU. That season, John L Smith's last, they finished 4-8 overall, 1-7 in the Big 10.
To prevent things from spiraling downhill, I think that Kirk Cousins must immediately be named the starting (and ending and everything in between) QB so he can get all of the reps with the first team. They must also begin game planning to defend against the spread offense immediately after the Wisconsin game. U-M, Illinois, and Northwestern, our next 3 opponents after this weekend, will rely on mobile QBs (to varying degrees) and spreading out the field. It could be a blessing to face them back-to-back-to-back since the defensive strategy can be improved each week. Finally, they have to find someone who can defend passes. I think the player we have missed most from last year, other than Javon Ringer, is Otis Wiley.
Compared to my preseason predictions, I think U-M is looking more like a Loss, but Minnesota and Wisconsin appear to have strong potential for MSU to be victorious. I don't believe they will start 1-5, but I think we should be looking forward to a low level bowl game and their potential for next season.
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
**UPDATE**
An update - not to one of my posts, but to Mike's rant on the Tigers before the Trade Deadline.
Let me recap...
"I write you this letter now because on Friday is July 31st- the MLB trading deadline. I know our payroll is still high, and I know we don't have much in the farm system, but from what I hear, you are one hell of a GM. I trust you and I trust your skills, and I'm hoping you can work some magic for our ballclub. Find that spark for us, Dave. Get us that hitter (and hopefully not Troy Glaus or Milton Bradley, like I've heard rumored...) that will get our offense going and carry us into October." - Mike
"I am actually going to contend that they are in an ok position to win the division without making any moves. We have a lot of guys hitting below their career averages, but I think they have a chance to put it together and peak at the right time. I am ok with them being in an offensive slump in July because it means they could hit their stride in Sept/Oct." - Adam
Since this post on July 28th:
-Record: 23-14
-Average runs per game: 4.9 (up from 3.65 in July)
-Percentage of games scoring 2 runs or less: 30% (down from 40% in July)
but...
-Average margin of victory: 2.35 (down from 3.38)
-Miguel Cabrera is the only starter with a BA above .300
-Their one acquirement, Aubrey Huff, is batting .167
Let me recap...
"I write you this letter now because on Friday is July 31st- the MLB trading deadline. I know our payroll is still high, and I know we don't have much in the farm system, but from what I hear, you are one hell of a GM. I trust you and I trust your skills, and I'm hoping you can work some magic for our ballclub. Find that spark for us, Dave. Get us that hitter (and hopefully not Troy Glaus or Milton Bradley, like I've heard rumored...) that will get our offense going and carry us into October." - Mike
"I am actually going to contend that they are in an ok position to win the division without making any moves. We have a lot of guys hitting below their career averages, but I think they have a chance to put it together and peak at the right time. I am ok with them being in an offensive slump in July because it means they could hit their stride in Sept/Oct." - Adam
Since this post on July 28th:
-Record: 23-14
-Average runs per game: 4.9 (up from 3.65 in July)
-Percentage of games scoring 2 runs or less: 30% (down from 40% in July)
but...
-Average margin of victory: 2.35 (down from 3.38)
-Miguel Cabrera is the only starter with a BA above .300
-Their one acquirement, Aubrey Huff, is batting .167
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
MSU Season Preview
5 Questions about MSU
1. Will Kirk Cousins remain the starting QB or can Keith Nichol play into the starter role?
Mark Dantonio was very quiet on who was leading the QB battle until the Montana St. press conference. I was very surprised to hear he will continue to evaluate the two of them on a game-by-game basis. That really leaves the door open to making a switch, so one has to wonder how short of a leash he will keep on Cousins.
2. How will our trio of freshman RBs work out? Will one person end up taking over?
The other piece of info I was surprised to discover was that Caulton Ray, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper are 1-2-3 on the depth chart. Actually, I was surprised to learn we have a player on our team named Caulton Ray. I can't believe that not a single one of Javon Ringer's understudies are ready to start at RB. Technically, the #2 guy was demoted this year. I am concerned that the decision indicates that the others weren't any good and not that these new guys are amazing.
3. Can Greg Jones remain an impact player?
He was voted the Preseason Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. It is extremely rare that a Spartan Defensive player is recognized for anything. Players like James Laurinaitis, AJ Hawk, Lamar Woodley, and Erasmus James (all of whom have won Defensive POY Honors) were critical in their team's success and were taken early in the NFL Draft. If Jones takes his game to the next level, he will be critical in stopping guys like Juice Williams and Daryll Clark.
4. Can our young defensive line hold people?
Last year, we finished T-48 in Sacks with teams like Indiana and Notre Dame. The Big 10 is filled with great rushing teams (3 of our opponents ranked in the Top 25 in rushing last year). We will face strong offensive lines against Notre Dame, Iowa, and Wisconsin; each stand to have strong running games as a result.
5. Last year we won the games we should have won and were blown out by superior opponents. Are let down games really a thing of the past?
I think so, to a certain extent. Below is how I see each game playing out along with my confidence rating (1- high, 12- low) in my prediction.
Game-By-Game Predictions
Montana State - Win (1)
I really don't think FBS teams should be able to play FCS teams and count it as a win.
Central Michigan - Win (6)
The Free Press actually predicted CMU to beat us. I definitely see this as a trap game because Dan LeFevour is one of the best non-BCS conference QBs. I think they are going to win the MAC, which means they are capable of pulling an upset.
at Notre Dame - Win (8)
Another iffy game since Lou Holtz predicted ND to go to the BCS Championship game. Golden Tate is scary and I am concerned our secondary won't be able to keep up. I reluctantly gave us a win because the away team typically wins this game. Also, they were terrible last year and they haven't proved they are significantly better yet.
at Wisconsin - Loss (10)
Even though I don't see any playmakers in their offense, I don't think we will be able to pull out a win on the road against Wisco. We won last year on a last second field goal - our closest win of the season. The ND game on the road will be a challenge and Michigan may be in the back of their minds.
Michigan - Win (12)
I feel the least confident about this prediction only because it is Michigan. They almost beat us last year despite having an awful team. If one of their freshman QBs steps up like Terelle Pryor did last year for Ohio State, they will end up willing 8-9 games. I am hoping we're one of the other 3-4 games.
at Illinois - Loss (5)
I think Illinois will be similar to the team from two years ago rather than last year. If Juice Williams cuts down on throwing interceptions and the defense can hold people, watch out.
Northwestern - Win (11)
I hate this game. I think the key to beating Northwestern is to get a lead early and not allowing them to feel like they're in the game.
Iowa - Win (7)
People are very high on Iowa but I think they will finish 5th in the Big 10 or worse. Shonn Greene provided the success for their team last year and he's gone. They always have great offensive and defensive lines, though, so this will be a close, low scoring game.
at Minnesota - Loss (9)
It will be interesting to see the weather in late October for this game since Minnesota is opening a new stadium this year. I
Western Michigan - Win (2)
I really like that we have a nice, easier game against WMU toward the end of the season. Hopefully they can open a lead early so they can pull the starters at the half.
at Purdue - Win (3)
Purdue offers nothing to be excited about. Past Spartan teams would probably lose this one because they're looking forward to the next week.
Penn State - Loss (4)
...but past MSU teams also pull at least 1 upset each season and that didn't happen last year. I think Daryll Clark is the best QB in the Big 10 and that the game will go much like last year's.
So that puts us at 8-4, a slight step back from last year. With our youth at QB and RB, I would label that a success and a great sign of things to come in 2010 and 2011.
Predicted Big 10 Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Wisconsin
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
1. Will Kirk Cousins remain the starting QB or can Keith Nichol play into the starter role?
Mark Dantonio was very quiet on who was leading the QB battle until the Montana St. press conference. I was very surprised to hear he will continue to evaluate the two of them on a game-by-game basis. That really leaves the door open to making a switch, so one has to wonder how short of a leash he will keep on Cousins.
2. How will our trio of freshman RBs work out? Will one person end up taking over?
The other piece of info I was surprised to discover was that Caulton Ray, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper are 1-2-3 on the depth chart. Actually, I was surprised to learn we have a player on our team named Caulton Ray. I can't believe that not a single one of Javon Ringer's understudies are ready to start at RB. Technically, the #2 guy was demoted this year. I am concerned that the decision indicates that the others weren't any good and not that these new guys are amazing.
3. Can Greg Jones remain an impact player?
He was voted the Preseason Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. It is extremely rare that a Spartan Defensive player is recognized for anything. Players like James Laurinaitis, AJ Hawk, Lamar Woodley, and Erasmus James (all of whom have won Defensive POY Honors) were critical in their team's success and were taken early in the NFL Draft. If Jones takes his game to the next level, he will be critical in stopping guys like Juice Williams and Daryll Clark.
4. Can our young defensive line hold people?
Last year, we finished T-48 in Sacks with teams like Indiana and Notre Dame. The Big 10 is filled with great rushing teams (3 of our opponents ranked in the Top 25 in rushing last year). We will face strong offensive lines against Notre Dame, Iowa, and Wisconsin; each stand to have strong running games as a result.
5. Last year we won the games we should have won and were blown out by superior opponents. Are let down games really a thing of the past?
I think so, to a certain extent. Below is how I see each game playing out along with my confidence rating (1- high, 12- low) in my prediction.
Game-By-Game Predictions
Montana State - Win (1)
I really don't think FBS teams should be able to play FCS teams and count it as a win.
Central Michigan - Win (6)
The Free Press actually predicted CMU to beat us. I definitely see this as a trap game because Dan LeFevour is one of the best non-BCS conference QBs. I think they are going to win the MAC, which means they are capable of pulling an upset.
at Notre Dame - Win (8)
Another iffy game since Lou Holtz predicted ND to go to the BCS Championship game. Golden Tate is scary and I am concerned our secondary won't be able to keep up. I reluctantly gave us a win because the away team typically wins this game. Also, they were terrible last year and they haven't proved they are significantly better yet.
at Wisconsin - Loss (10)
Even though I don't see any playmakers in their offense, I don't think we will be able to pull out a win on the road against Wisco. We won last year on a last second field goal - our closest win of the season. The ND game on the road will be a challenge and Michigan may be in the back of their minds.
Michigan - Win (12)
I feel the least confident about this prediction only because it is Michigan. They almost beat us last year despite having an awful team. If one of their freshman QBs steps up like Terelle Pryor did last year for Ohio State, they will end up willing 8-9 games. I am hoping we're one of the other 3-4 games.
at Illinois - Loss (5)
I think Illinois will be similar to the team from two years ago rather than last year. If Juice Williams cuts down on throwing interceptions and the defense can hold people, watch out.
Northwestern - Win (11)
I hate this game. I think the key to beating Northwestern is to get a lead early and not allowing them to feel like they're in the game.
Iowa - Win (7)
People are very high on Iowa but I think they will finish 5th in the Big 10 or worse. Shonn Greene provided the success for their team last year and he's gone. They always have great offensive and defensive lines, though, so this will be a close, low scoring game.
at Minnesota - Loss (9)
It will be interesting to see the weather in late October for this game since Minnesota is opening a new stadium this year. I
Western Michigan - Win (2)
I really like that we have a nice, easier game against WMU toward the end of the season. Hopefully they can open a lead early so they can pull the starters at the half.
at Purdue - Win (3)
Purdue offers nothing to be excited about. Past Spartan teams would probably lose this one because they're looking forward to the next week.
Penn State - Loss (4)
...but past MSU teams also pull at least 1 upset each season and that didn't happen last year. I think Daryll Clark is the best QB in the Big 10 and that the game will go much like last year's.
So that puts us at 8-4, a slight step back from last year. With our youth at QB and RB, I would label that a success and a great sign of things to come in 2010 and 2011.
Predicted Big 10 Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Wisconsin
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
My Draft Analysis
I said before the draft that I was thinking about going RB/WR, QB/RB, and WR/QB. And that's exactly what I ended up doing (without much planning). Here's my thoughts on who is the strongest at each position.
QBs: Wicked Weasels - On paper, the Manning brothers and Kurt Warner have a lot to offer. Sure, there are questions on how Eli will fare without Plaxico Burress and whether Kurt Warner is too old, but they have had great performances in the past and have a strong TD/INT ratio. Keep in mind, each has won a Super Bowl. Close runner up - ipresstoocoolbuttons
RBs: Whisky Wednesday - It is hard to say anyone else has a better RB lineup since he took one in each of the first 5 rounds. Turner and Chris Johnson look like the solid starters for most weeks with Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs offering good starts based on their matchups. Close runner up - Zoo Tycoons. MJD probably is really a good selection and DeAngelo Williams was an absolute STEAL in the 3rd round. Plus, Marshawn Lynch and Larry Johnson are more than capable of pulling a huge week or two out of nowhere.
WRs: Cumming From Behind - wow - Randy Moss, Roddy White, Greg Jennings - numbers 4, 6, and 8 in Fantasy WRs last year. Plus, he has one of the WRs with the most potential to break out in 09 in Anthony Gonzalez. If Mike wins the championship this year, this is the reason why. Close runner up - Boston Massacre and ipresstoocoolbuttons (TIE). I think my WRs are my strong point. I think Welker, Roy Williams, and Devin Hester all have potential to greatly improve last year's numbers with their new QB situations. I like that Grace has consistent talent in Boldin, and Chad & Calvin Johnson.
Bench: Cumming From Behind - I feel like this is what a FF magazine would say your bench should look like. I think there is a lot of potential in Gonzalez, McFadden, and Brown to have big weeks early in the season. Close runner up - Boston Massacre. I probably drafted Leshaun McCoy 2-3 rounds before I could have, but at least I got my guy. If Chicago's offense pans out, Cutler and Hester will be nice starting options, but that is a big if.
Other notes:
-I own 3 of the top 9 Yahoo ranked players Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Fitz)
-Mike's highest ranked player in Yahoo rankings is 17th overall (Randy Moss)
-In regards to total projected points, Whiskey Wednesday's highest ranked player is 21st overall (Joe Flacco)
QBs: Wicked Weasels - On paper, the Manning brothers and Kurt Warner have a lot to offer. Sure, there are questions on how Eli will fare without Plaxico Burress and whether Kurt Warner is too old, but they have had great performances in the past and have a strong TD/INT ratio. Keep in mind, each has won a Super Bowl. Close runner up - ipresstoocoolbuttons
RBs: Whisky Wednesday - It is hard to say anyone else has a better RB lineup since he took one in each of the first 5 rounds. Turner and Chris Johnson look like the solid starters for most weeks with Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs offering good starts based on their matchups. Close runner up - Zoo Tycoons. MJD probably is really a good selection and DeAngelo Williams was an absolute STEAL in the 3rd round. Plus, Marshawn Lynch and Larry Johnson are more than capable of pulling a huge week or two out of nowhere.
WRs: Cumming From Behind - wow - Randy Moss, Roddy White, Greg Jennings - numbers 4, 6, and 8 in Fantasy WRs last year. Plus, he has one of the WRs with the most potential to break out in 09 in Anthony Gonzalez. If Mike wins the championship this year, this is the reason why. Close runner up - Boston Massacre and ipresstoocoolbuttons (TIE). I think my WRs are my strong point. I think Welker, Roy Williams, and Devin Hester all have potential to greatly improve last year's numbers with their new QB situations. I like that Grace has consistent talent in Boldin, and Chad & Calvin Johnson.
Bench: Cumming From Behind - I feel like this is what a FF magazine would say your bench should look like. I think there is a lot of potential in Gonzalez, McFadden, and Brown to have big weeks early in the season. Close runner up - Boston Massacre. I probably drafted Leshaun McCoy 2-3 rounds before I could have, but at least I got my guy. If Chicago's offense pans out, Cutler and Hester will be nice starting options, but that is a big if.
Other notes:
-I own 3 of the top 9 Yahoo ranked players Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Fitz)
-Mike's highest ranked player in Yahoo rankings is 17th overall (Randy Moss)
-In regards to total projected points, Whiskey Wednesday's highest ranked player is 21st overall (Joe Flacco)
Thursday, August 20, 2009
The Winner's Manual
How arrogant is it for Jim Tressel to name his book "The Winner's Manual"? Almost as arrogant as me titling it as my fantasy football preview post. I am so excited for our season to begin that I wanted to give my thoughts on the draft. Is it stupid or just arrogant of me to discuss my strategy? My goal is neither - I just really want to start a debate.
-You know you're marrying the right person when you're looking through Fantasy Football magazines and thing "hmm, would she want me to pick her up a copy?" She said she would've looked it over, if you were wondering.
-Most underrated player: Matt Hasselbeck (109). Quarterbacks rated higher: Cassel, Cutler, Eli Manning. Players ranked higher: Steve Breaston, John Carlson (his own TE), Sammy Morris. I understand he was bad last year (5 TD, 10 INT). However, he was injured much of the season, as were his WRs (who were sketchy at best). Don't forget in 2007 he threw for almost 4000 yards, 28 TDs, and 12 INTs. Plus, they added T.J. Who'syourmama to the team. Finally, they had to face the AFC and NFC East and struggled with the cross-country road trips every week. This year, they will get to face the Lions, Jaguars, Tampa Bay, Houston, and as always, two games a piece against the 49ers and Rams. Look for him to throw 3500+ yards, 24+ TDs, and 14- INTs.
-Most overrated player: Maurice Jones Drew (3). RBs rated lower: Deangelo Williams, Ladanian Tomlinson. The way I remember it, MJD had a bad season last year. I checked his stats and he only had 824 yards rushing. His 565 yards receiving, and 14 TDs improve his resume, however. I get that the fact that he is young and typically receives most of the carries (especially in the red zone) makes him a rare option in a 2-back heavy league. However, I just don't think there is a lot to be excited about with his team. The Jaguars play in an increasingly difficult division and, in my opinion, lack a strong passing game that can take some of the attention off of MJD. He put up a lot of points last year through his TDs and I don't trust a player to be able to repeat that year after year. That being said, I could very well end up drafting him at 8 or 9, which seems like a more appropriate spot for him.
-Teams to stay away from: Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs. I would say the only Brown you could consider drafting would be Braylon Edwards. I would stay away from him, however, because he is very inconsistent and drops way too many balls. He used to be a #1 WR option, but I think now he is more like a #3. The Chiefs used to have 2 solid draft picks in Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez. This year, Larry's stock has dropped tremendously and Tony's gone to Atlanta. Of their current players, I think Dwayne Bowe is a #2 WR, Johnson is a #3 RB, and Cassel is a late round QB (I'm not buying him at all).
This all leads me to how I see the draft shaking out. I am very happy to have picks #8 and 9 - this is supposed to be the year to be in the bottom half of the draft order. I think the following players will be taken before I'm up (in no particular order): Adrian Peterson, Ladanian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Deangelo Williams, Maurice Jones Drew. I am thinking heavily about going with RB/WR. This would logically give me the choice of Matt Forte/Brian Westbrook and Larry Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson/Andre Johnson. I could imagine more WRs/QBs taken in the first round, however, which would force me to take two of the elite RBs. The second go around, I am thinking about going QB/RB and then QB/WR in the third. I have my eye on 2 particular defenses (I have to keep something secret) so I may take one of them in the 4th go-around, which would be the 7th and 8th rounds.
Regardless of how it goes, I cannot wait until Tuesday.
-You know you're marrying the right person when you're looking through Fantasy Football magazines and thing "hmm, would she want me to pick her up a copy?" She said she would've looked it over, if you were wondering.
-Most underrated player: Matt Hasselbeck (109). Quarterbacks rated higher: Cassel, Cutler, Eli Manning. Players ranked higher: Steve Breaston, John Carlson (his own TE), Sammy Morris. I understand he was bad last year (5 TD, 10 INT). However, he was injured much of the season, as were his WRs (who were sketchy at best). Don't forget in 2007 he threw for almost 4000 yards, 28 TDs, and 12 INTs. Plus, they added T.J. Who'syourmama to the team. Finally, they had to face the AFC and NFC East and struggled with the cross-country road trips every week. This year, they will get to face the Lions, Jaguars, Tampa Bay, Houston, and as always, two games a piece against the 49ers and Rams. Look for him to throw 3500+ yards, 24+ TDs, and 14- INTs.
-Most overrated player: Maurice Jones Drew (3). RBs rated lower: Deangelo Williams, Ladanian Tomlinson. The way I remember it, MJD had a bad season last year. I checked his stats and he only had 824 yards rushing. His 565 yards receiving, and 14 TDs improve his resume, however. I get that the fact that he is young and typically receives most of the carries (especially in the red zone) makes him a rare option in a 2-back heavy league. However, I just don't think there is a lot to be excited about with his team. The Jaguars play in an increasingly difficult division and, in my opinion, lack a strong passing game that can take some of the attention off of MJD. He put up a lot of points last year through his TDs and I don't trust a player to be able to repeat that year after year. That being said, I could very well end up drafting him at 8 or 9, which seems like a more appropriate spot for him.
-Teams to stay away from: Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs. I would say the only Brown you could consider drafting would be Braylon Edwards. I would stay away from him, however, because he is very inconsistent and drops way too many balls. He used to be a #1 WR option, but I think now he is more like a #3. The Chiefs used to have 2 solid draft picks in Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez. This year, Larry's stock has dropped tremendously and Tony's gone to Atlanta. Of their current players, I think Dwayne Bowe is a #2 WR, Johnson is a #3 RB, and Cassel is a late round QB (I'm not buying him at all).
This all leads me to how I see the draft shaking out. I am very happy to have picks #8 and 9 - this is supposed to be the year to be in the bottom half of the draft order. I think the following players will be taken before I'm up (in no particular order): Adrian Peterson, Ladanian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Deangelo Williams, Maurice Jones Drew. I am thinking heavily about going with RB/WR. This would logically give me the choice of Matt Forte/Brian Westbrook and Larry Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson/Andre Johnson. I could imagine more WRs/QBs taken in the first round, however, which would force me to take two of the elite RBs. The second go around, I am thinking about going QB/RB and then QB/WR in the third. I have my eye on 2 particular defenses (I have to keep something secret) so I may take one of them in the 4th go-around, which would be the 7th and 8th rounds.
Regardless of how it goes, I cannot wait until Tuesday.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
The Sac Bunt
I want you to think for a second and decide what you do in this situation. You're a baseball manager, the only kind of coach that wears the same uniform as his players, as if he may step in relief in the 8th. Let's say the game is close late in the game - you are tied or down by one run. Your first at bat in the inning is a leadoff double. Ignoring the batting ability of the guy at the plate or the running ability of the baserunners, do you use him to sac bunt to get the runner over to third or rely on your next few bats to bring him home?
I ask this because I have seen Jim Leyland in this situation 3 times this year where he sac bunted. Two times there was a guy on second and one time was with a guy on first and second (it happened twice against the Red Sox tonight). And only one of the three times lead to a run. Because I feel outs are precious, I don't give them up to advance someone to third. A well hit ball can bring someone home from 3rd or 2nd, so what does it matter where they are standing? Keeping that first out will allow you more opportunities to get that hit. That being said, what are your thoughts?
I ask this because I have seen Jim Leyland in this situation 3 times this year where he sac bunted. Two times there was a guy on second and one time was with a guy on first and second (it happened twice against the Red Sox tonight). And only one of the three times lead to a run. Because I feel outs are precious, I don't give them up to advance someone to third. A well hit ball can bring someone home from 3rd or 2nd, so what does it matter where they are standing? Keeping that first out will allow you more opportunities to get that hit. That being said, what are your thoughts?
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