"Typical Spartans" - adjective
1. relates to the performance of the Michigan State football team.
2. a pattern of losing easy games in the final minutes due to lack of effort, focus, and/or execution.
"That loss to Central Michigan was 'typical Spartans'".
3. the act of winning early in the season and having a letdown in October.
I am not trying to exaggerate the importance of the next 3 games, but this really is a pivotal point in their season. From one perspective, their 1-2 record isn't as bad as it sounds. They have lost their games on a last second field goal and 2 minute offense that was very close to producing a go-ahead TD or a game-tying field goal. They have lost by a combined 5 points. Their starting QB is the best in the Big 10 in QB Rating (14th overall), which happen to also stand as our rankings in passing YPG in the conference and nation. Between Nichol and Cousins, they've thrown 1 INT all season. Greg Jones is #3 in the country in tackles.
From another perspective, they are in worse shape than they have been in years. They lost to a MAC team at home, which brought up memories of similar early-season losses in years past to Cal in 2002, Louisiana Tech in 2003, and Rutgers in 2004. The next game was headed to be much more of a blowout until Michael Floyd broke his collarbone and Jimmy Clausen injured his foot. (Side note: I propose we call the broken collarbone the "Charles Rogers" much like an injured ulnar collateral ligament is the "Tommy John"). MSU ranks 81st in Rushing YPG. They have only recorded 5 sacks and 2 INTs. Our secondary can't stop anyone. We STILL have not settled on a QB and the WRs don't look in synch with the QBs as a result.
This season has defied the third part of my definition because their schedule is uncharacteristically difficult early in the season. We have not met my expectations, but they really do start their new season this Saturday. Over the next 3 weekends, Michigan State plays at Wisconsin (a game we won on a last second FG last year), has a tougher-than-expected game against U-M, and plays at Illinois. If they were to somehow win all three of these games, they make a very strong argument for winning the Big 10. I assume they would at worst finish 3rd barring a huge letdown later in the season. If the opposite were to occur, which I think is entirely possible, they will stand at an abismal 1-5 on October 10th. To put this into perspective, here are the dates over the past 7 seasons when they lost their 5th game.
2002 Oct. 26
2003 Dec. 29th (Bowl Game)
2004 Nov. 6th
2005 Nov. 12th
2006 Oct. 28th
2007 Nov. 3rd
2008 We lost our 4th game against Georgia in the Citrus Bowl on 1/1/09
Playing difficult Big-10 teams this early in the season is rare, but disasterous when it occurs. Looking over this history, our schedule is most akin to that in 2005. After defeating Kent St and Hawaii at home they played at Notre Dame and won. They blew out an easy Illinois team on the road to make it 4-0. However, they lost a close game at home against Michigan and again against OSU after the bye week. Things took the "typical Spartan" downward spiral and they lost 4 of the last 5 to bring the season record to 5-6. 2006 was very similar as well with their Big 10 schedule opening home against Illinois, at Michigan, and home against OSU. That season, John L Smith's last, they finished 4-8 overall, 1-7 in the Big 10.
To prevent things from spiraling downhill, I think that Kirk Cousins must immediately be named the starting (and ending and everything in between) QB so he can get all of the reps with the first team. They must also begin game planning to defend against the spread offense immediately after the Wisconsin game. U-M, Illinois, and Northwestern, our next 3 opponents after this weekend, will rely on mobile QBs (to varying degrees) and spreading out the field. It could be a blessing to face them back-to-back-to-back since the defensive strategy can be improved each week. Finally, they have to find someone who can defend passes. I think the player we have missed most from last year, other than Javon Ringer, is Otis Wiley.
Compared to my preseason predictions, I think U-M is looking more like a Loss, but Minnesota and Wisconsin appear to have strong potential for MSU to be victorious. I don't believe they will start 1-5, but I think we should be looking forward to a low level bowl game and their potential for next season.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
**UPDATE**
An update - not to one of my posts, but to Mike's rant on the Tigers before the Trade Deadline.
Let me recap...
"I write you this letter now because on Friday is July 31st- the MLB trading deadline. I know our payroll is still high, and I know we don't have much in the farm system, but from what I hear, you are one hell of a GM. I trust you and I trust your skills, and I'm hoping you can work some magic for our ballclub. Find that spark for us, Dave. Get us that hitter (and hopefully not Troy Glaus or Milton Bradley, like I've heard rumored...) that will get our offense going and carry us into October." - Mike
"I am actually going to contend that they are in an ok position to win the division without making any moves. We have a lot of guys hitting below their career averages, but I think they have a chance to put it together and peak at the right time. I am ok with them being in an offensive slump in July because it means they could hit their stride in Sept/Oct." - Adam
Since this post on July 28th:
-Record: 23-14
-Average runs per game: 4.9 (up from 3.65 in July)
-Percentage of games scoring 2 runs or less: 30% (down from 40% in July)
but...
-Average margin of victory: 2.35 (down from 3.38)
-Miguel Cabrera is the only starter with a BA above .300
-Their one acquirement, Aubrey Huff, is batting .167
Let me recap...
"I write you this letter now because on Friday is July 31st- the MLB trading deadline. I know our payroll is still high, and I know we don't have much in the farm system, but from what I hear, you are one hell of a GM. I trust you and I trust your skills, and I'm hoping you can work some magic for our ballclub. Find that spark for us, Dave. Get us that hitter (and hopefully not Troy Glaus or Milton Bradley, like I've heard rumored...) that will get our offense going and carry us into October." - Mike
"I am actually going to contend that they are in an ok position to win the division without making any moves. We have a lot of guys hitting below their career averages, but I think they have a chance to put it together and peak at the right time. I am ok with them being in an offensive slump in July because it means they could hit their stride in Sept/Oct." - Adam
Since this post on July 28th:
-Record: 23-14
-Average runs per game: 4.9 (up from 3.65 in July)
-Percentage of games scoring 2 runs or less: 30% (down from 40% in July)
but...
-Average margin of victory: 2.35 (down from 3.38)
-Miguel Cabrera is the only starter with a BA above .300
-Their one acquirement, Aubrey Huff, is batting .167
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
MSU Season Preview
5 Questions about MSU
1. Will Kirk Cousins remain the starting QB or can Keith Nichol play into the starter role?
Mark Dantonio was very quiet on who was leading the QB battle until the Montana St. press conference. I was very surprised to hear he will continue to evaluate the two of them on a game-by-game basis. That really leaves the door open to making a switch, so one has to wonder how short of a leash he will keep on Cousins.
2. How will our trio of freshman RBs work out? Will one person end up taking over?
The other piece of info I was surprised to discover was that Caulton Ray, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper are 1-2-3 on the depth chart. Actually, I was surprised to learn we have a player on our team named Caulton Ray. I can't believe that not a single one of Javon Ringer's understudies are ready to start at RB. Technically, the #2 guy was demoted this year. I am concerned that the decision indicates that the others weren't any good and not that these new guys are amazing.
3. Can Greg Jones remain an impact player?
He was voted the Preseason Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. It is extremely rare that a Spartan Defensive player is recognized for anything. Players like James Laurinaitis, AJ Hawk, Lamar Woodley, and Erasmus James (all of whom have won Defensive POY Honors) were critical in their team's success and were taken early in the NFL Draft. If Jones takes his game to the next level, he will be critical in stopping guys like Juice Williams and Daryll Clark.
4. Can our young defensive line hold people?
Last year, we finished T-48 in Sacks with teams like Indiana and Notre Dame. The Big 10 is filled with great rushing teams (3 of our opponents ranked in the Top 25 in rushing last year). We will face strong offensive lines against Notre Dame, Iowa, and Wisconsin; each stand to have strong running games as a result.
5. Last year we won the games we should have won and were blown out by superior opponents. Are let down games really a thing of the past?
I think so, to a certain extent. Below is how I see each game playing out along with my confidence rating (1- high, 12- low) in my prediction.
Game-By-Game Predictions
Montana State - Win (1)
I really don't think FBS teams should be able to play FCS teams and count it as a win.
Central Michigan - Win (6)
The Free Press actually predicted CMU to beat us. I definitely see this as a trap game because Dan LeFevour is one of the best non-BCS conference QBs. I think they are going to win the MAC, which means they are capable of pulling an upset.
at Notre Dame - Win (8)
Another iffy game since Lou Holtz predicted ND to go to the BCS Championship game. Golden Tate is scary and I am concerned our secondary won't be able to keep up. I reluctantly gave us a win because the away team typically wins this game. Also, they were terrible last year and they haven't proved they are significantly better yet.
at Wisconsin - Loss (10)
Even though I don't see any playmakers in their offense, I don't think we will be able to pull out a win on the road against Wisco. We won last year on a last second field goal - our closest win of the season. The ND game on the road will be a challenge and Michigan may be in the back of their minds.
Michigan - Win (12)
I feel the least confident about this prediction only because it is Michigan. They almost beat us last year despite having an awful team. If one of their freshman QBs steps up like Terelle Pryor did last year for Ohio State, they will end up willing 8-9 games. I am hoping we're one of the other 3-4 games.
at Illinois - Loss (5)
I think Illinois will be similar to the team from two years ago rather than last year. If Juice Williams cuts down on throwing interceptions and the defense can hold people, watch out.
Northwestern - Win (11)
I hate this game. I think the key to beating Northwestern is to get a lead early and not allowing them to feel like they're in the game.
Iowa - Win (7)
People are very high on Iowa but I think they will finish 5th in the Big 10 or worse. Shonn Greene provided the success for their team last year and he's gone. They always have great offensive and defensive lines, though, so this will be a close, low scoring game.
at Minnesota - Loss (9)
It will be interesting to see the weather in late October for this game since Minnesota is opening a new stadium this year. I
Western Michigan - Win (2)
I really like that we have a nice, easier game against WMU toward the end of the season. Hopefully they can open a lead early so they can pull the starters at the half.
at Purdue - Win (3)
Purdue offers nothing to be excited about. Past Spartan teams would probably lose this one because they're looking forward to the next week.
Penn State - Loss (4)
...but past MSU teams also pull at least 1 upset each season and that didn't happen last year. I think Daryll Clark is the best QB in the Big 10 and that the game will go much like last year's.
So that puts us at 8-4, a slight step back from last year. With our youth at QB and RB, I would label that a success and a great sign of things to come in 2010 and 2011.
Predicted Big 10 Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Wisconsin
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
1. Will Kirk Cousins remain the starting QB or can Keith Nichol play into the starter role?
Mark Dantonio was very quiet on who was leading the QB battle until the Montana St. press conference. I was very surprised to hear he will continue to evaluate the two of them on a game-by-game basis. That really leaves the door open to making a switch, so one has to wonder how short of a leash he will keep on Cousins.
2. How will our trio of freshman RBs work out? Will one person end up taking over?
The other piece of info I was surprised to discover was that Caulton Ray, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper are 1-2-3 on the depth chart. Actually, I was surprised to learn we have a player on our team named Caulton Ray. I can't believe that not a single one of Javon Ringer's understudies are ready to start at RB. Technically, the #2 guy was demoted this year. I am concerned that the decision indicates that the others weren't any good and not that these new guys are amazing.
3. Can Greg Jones remain an impact player?
He was voted the Preseason Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. It is extremely rare that a Spartan Defensive player is recognized for anything. Players like James Laurinaitis, AJ Hawk, Lamar Woodley, and Erasmus James (all of whom have won Defensive POY Honors) were critical in their team's success and were taken early in the NFL Draft. If Jones takes his game to the next level, he will be critical in stopping guys like Juice Williams and Daryll Clark.
4. Can our young defensive line hold people?
Last year, we finished T-48 in Sacks with teams like Indiana and Notre Dame. The Big 10 is filled with great rushing teams (3 of our opponents ranked in the Top 25 in rushing last year). We will face strong offensive lines against Notre Dame, Iowa, and Wisconsin; each stand to have strong running games as a result.
5. Last year we won the games we should have won and were blown out by superior opponents. Are let down games really a thing of the past?
I think so, to a certain extent. Below is how I see each game playing out along with my confidence rating (1- high, 12- low) in my prediction.
Game-By-Game Predictions
Montana State - Win (1)
I really don't think FBS teams should be able to play FCS teams and count it as a win.
Central Michigan - Win (6)
The Free Press actually predicted CMU to beat us. I definitely see this as a trap game because Dan LeFevour is one of the best non-BCS conference QBs. I think they are going to win the MAC, which means they are capable of pulling an upset.
at Notre Dame - Win (8)
Another iffy game since Lou Holtz predicted ND to go to the BCS Championship game. Golden Tate is scary and I am concerned our secondary won't be able to keep up. I reluctantly gave us a win because the away team typically wins this game. Also, they were terrible last year and they haven't proved they are significantly better yet.
at Wisconsin - Loss (10)
Even though I don't see any playmakers in their offense, I don't think we will be able to pull out a win on the road against Wisco. We won last year on a last second field goal - our closest win of the season. The ND game on the road will be a challenge and Michigan may be in the back of their minds.
Michigan - Win (12)
I feel the least confident about this prediction only because it is Michigan. They almost beat us last year despite having an awful team. If one of their freshman QBs steps up like Terelle Pryor did last year for Ohio State, they will end up willing 8-9 games. I am hoping we're one of the other 3-4 games.
at Illinois - Loss (5)
I think Illinois will be similar to the team from two years ago rather than last year. If Juice Williams cuts down on throwing interceptions and the defense can hold people, watch out.
Northwestern - Win (11)
I hate this game. I think the key to beating Northwestern is to get a lead early and not allowing them to feel like they're in the game.
Iowa - Win (7)
People are very high on Iowa but I think they will finish 5th in the Big 10 or worse. Shonn Greene provided the success for their team last year and he's gone. They always have great offensive and defensive lines, though, so this will be a close, low scoring game.
at Minnesota - Loss (9)
It will be interesting to see the weather in late October for this game since Minnesota is opening a new stadium this year. I
Western Michigan - Win (2)
I really like that we have a nice, easier game against WMU toward the end of the season. Hopefully they can open a lead early so they can pull the starters at the half.
at Purdue - Win (3)
Purdue offers nothing to be excited about. Past Spartan teams would probably lose this one because they're looking forward to the next week.
Penn State - Loss (4)
...but past MSU teams also pull at least 1 upset each season and that didn't happen last year. I think Daryll Clark is the best QB in the Big 10 and that the game will go much like last year's.
So that puts us at 8-4, a slight step back from last year. With our youth at QB and RB, I would label that a success and a great sign of things to come in 2010 and 2011.
Predicted Big 10 Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Wisconsin
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
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