DISCLAIMER: This post is a compilation of my research based on Mike's Fantasy Football post. Reading some of this information may upset you, especially if you're Mike. This post is not intended to boast about my team's performance this season, so don't call me a dick. This is part one of my two part analysis. The next part will attempt to analyze each person's skill.
Since I had the least amount of "Fantasy Points Against", I assumed that means that I had the easiest "strength of schedule". I wanted to see how every other team would have handled my schedule. Not surprising, Mike's record would have improved the most. I am proud to say, while 4 people would have improved their record, nobody would have had as many wins as I have.
(Side note: Even though I am comparing each person's weekly fantasy score against the score of my opponent for that week, I kept each person's result against me the same. So, for example, I played Canadian Beasters in week 1. He scored 70.98 points and I won. Therefore, week one counts as a loss for him. Wicked Weasels beat me in week 3, so that counts as a win for him. Sorry if that's too confusing.)
Week 1 was the only week where the results would have been the exact same. There were two weeks (2 and 6) that I won, but would have lost had I played anyone else. In week 3, I lost and would have lost to anyone since I was lowest in points that week. I lead the league in scoring in week 7. Below are the rankings in order of how many more wins each person would have gained.
+5 Cumming from Behind 6-4
+2 Wicked Weasels 6-4
+1 Kevinexorable 7-3
+1 WooHoo Still Last 4-6
e I Miss Aaron Rowand 6-4
e Zoo Tycoons 5-5
-1 Canadian Beasters 6-4
Looking at these results, I thought if Dave had fewer wins by playing my schedule, perhaps his schedule was easier than mine. Perhaps I could even be 9-1 with his schedule! So I ran the numbers again with his schedule.
+6 Cumming from Behind 7-3
+2 Zoo Tycoons 7-3
+1 Wicked Weasels 5-5
e I Miss Aaron Rowand 6-4
e WooHoo Still Lost 3-7
-1 Kevinexorable 5-5
-2 Boston Massacre 6-4
Ok, so I was wrong - I had the easiest schedule since it benefitted 4 people compared to 3 and lead to a net gain of 8 wins versus a net gain of 6 with Dave's schedule. Obviously the most interesting thing about this difference is that Mike would have EVEN MORE wins with Dave's schedule and would be in 3rd place right now in our league. I think it is also interesting that Kevin would benefit by my schedule, but would be worse off with Dave's. Finally, while there are 2 teams in each scenario that would not result in a net gain or loss of wins, only Amber's team would have won and lost the exact same games under Dave's schedule.
9 comments:
Well nothing in here made me go, "Man, Adam is such a dick." Saving that for Part 2, eh? Since I am in last place, I can't imagine my "skill level" being that high, haha. I fully admit my trades and moves have, for the most part, not panned out in this league. I will try to defend myself though!
Perhaps the luckiest part of fantasy football doesn't pertain to player performance, but the luck of the draw with scheduling?
Do you know another stat that I found interesting? Kevin has two of the top 5 backs in fantasy football on his roster...and they're not named Adrian Peterson or Frank Gore. That's right, Thomas Jones and Michael Turner.
And my love for Marion the Barbarian...still doing better than AP, LT, Westbrook, and SJax- the guys rated ahead of him preseason. Just thought I'd throw that one in there too =).
Man, Adam is such a dick.
I think I understood the gist of this post, if not the entire method. I thought my team would have done a lot better playing Adam's schedule. And it is odd that my team would do worse playing an "easier" schedule.
What is your opinion about switching to a total points league rather than head-to-head? I like the head-to-head, but a total points league would eliminate the "luck of the draw" in terms of schedule.
It definitely would cut down on the luck factor, but you lose the one-on-one matchups we have every week (which I personally enjoy). Something to think about. Maybe we could try it next year? And a keeper league...?
I would like to try a keeper league. I'm not sure I want to give up the head-to-head though. I think I'm pretty even over the past seasons in terms of winning games with the second lowest points and losing games with the second highest points.
You're right, I'm sure it all evens out over time. I defintely want to keep head-to-head as well.
I'm all for a keeper, except we just need a stable crew that will play year after year. I say we have 7 that will play year after year...so we need that one more...
I just didn't want anyone to think I was rubbing it in with this post. Part 2 so far is fairly complementary to you Mike.
I would love to do a keeper league, but we need to keep the head-to-head matchups. That's where all of the fun is.
So where is part 2?
Post a Comment