How arrogant is it for Jim Tressel to name his book "The Winner's Manual"? Almost as arrogant as me titling it as my fantasy football preview post. I am so excited for our season to begin that I wanted to give my thoughts on the draft. Is it stupid or just arrogant of me to discuss my strategy? My goal is neither - I just really want to start a debate.
-You know you're marrying the right person when you're looking through Fantasy Football magazines and thing "hmm, would she want me to pick her up a copy?" She said she would've looked it over, if you were wondering.
-Most underrated player: Matt Hasselbeck (109). Quarterbacks rated higher: Cassel, Cutler, Eli Manning. Players ranked higher: Steve Breaston, John Carlson (his own TE), Sammy Morris. I understand he was bad last year (5 TD, 10 INT). However, he was injured much of the season, as were his WRs (who were sketchy at best). Don't forget in 2007 he threw for almost 4000 yards, 28 TDs, and 12 INTs. Plus, they added T.J. Who'syourmama to the team. Finally, they had to face the AFC and NFC East and struggled with the cross-country road trips every week. This year, they will get to face the Lions, Jaguars, Tampa Bay, Houston, and as always, two games a piece against the 49ers and Rams. Look for him to throw 3500+ yards, 24+ TDs, and 14- INTs.
-Most overrated player: Maurice Jones Drew (3). RBs rated lower: Deangelo Williams, Ladanian Tomlinson. The way I remember it, MJD had a bad season last year. I checked his stats and he only had 824 yards rushing. His 565 yards receiving, and 14 TDs improve his resume, however. I get that the fact that he is young and typically receives most of the carries (especially in the red zone) makes him a rare option in a 2-back heavy league. However, I just don't think there is a lot to be excited about with his team. The Jaguars play in an increasingly difficult division and, in my opinion, lack a strong passing game that can take some of the attention off of MJD. He put up a lot of points last year through his TDs and I don't trust a player to be able to repeat that year after year. That being said, I could very well end up drafting him at 8 or 9, which seems like a more appropriate spot for him.
-Teams to stay away from: Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs. I would say the only Brown you could consider drafting would be Braylon Edwards. I would stay away from him, however, because he is very inconsistent and drops way too many balls. He used to be a #1 WR option, but I think now he is more like a #3. The Chiefs used to have 2 solid draft picks in Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez. This year, Larry's stock has dropped tremendously and Tony's gone to Atlanta. Of their current players, I think Dwayne Bowe is a #2 WR, Johnson is a #3 RB, and Cassel is a late round QB (I'm not buying him at all).
This all leads me to how I see the draft shaking out. I am very happy to have picks #8 and 9 - this is supposed to be the year to be in the bottom half of the draft order. I think the following players will be taken before I'm up (in no particular order): Adrian Peterson, Ladanian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Deangelo Williams, Maurice Jones Drew. I am thinking heavily about going with RB/WR. This would logically give me the choice of Matt Forte/Brian Westbrook and Larry Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson/Andre Johnson. I could imagine more WRs/QBs taken in the first round, however, which would force me to take two of the elite RBs. The second go around, I am thinking about going QB/RB and then QB/WR in the third. I have my eye on 2 particular defenses (I have to keep something secret) so I may take one of them in the 4th go-around, which would be the 7th and 8th rounds.
Regardless of how it goes, I cannot wait until Tuesday.
2 comments:
I am seriously considering drafting MJD #1. It's still a toss up between him and Adrian Peterson, I'll probably decide on draft day.
Hasselback will be better than last year, but he is still a 3rd tier QB in my book. That being said, I would rank those 4 QB's as follows: Eli, Hasselbeck, Cutler, Cassel.
Braylon isn't a #1 WR anymore, but I think he's still a solid #2. At least as solid as Dwayne Bowe.
Haha, I have my prediction post all typed out and saved. I have a lot of my sleeper picks in there, so I'll post my predictions after the draft =).
Hasselbeck is definitely underrated; I agree with you. I suppose you could make arguments (not good ones, mind you) for Cutler and Cassel, but Eli? The dude has no receivers, plays in a tough division, and gets just above 20 TDs. Come on now...
I have more thoughts on MJD in my fantasy post. It's hard to look at previous years stats with him because he wasn't the "featured" back. This is the first year he has no Fred Taylor, so you'd have to think that the yardage totals would increase. And Jacksonville's offense has always been pedestrian at best, and MJD still gets his. But like you, I'm not as excited as some about MJD, and for different reasons...
Dwayne Bowe would be the only one I'd consider off the Chiefs or Browns, and hopefully as a #3 WR. Braylon is barely a #3 after last year's performance.
I'd be surprised if Forte fell to you, or any of the top 4 backs for that matter. I could see LT or DeAngelo falling, though.
And Brian's not taking Favre =)?
Defense in the 7th or 8th round? Is there a Chicago Bears-esque defense (the one from a few years ago) this year? As always, I will wait until the 14th round and play the matchups week in and week out. I think San Diego D is rated rather low and I think they'll have a nice year (they get the AFC West 6 times, so that's nice).
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