I can't wait for March! As we approach conference tournament time, I wanted to share a few of my thoughts on what to expect coming up.
Team with the most pressure: Pittsburgh
In a year lacking a dominant, NBA-ready team, the best team in the best conference should be a common pick to win it all. However, Pitt has been the "anti-Michigan State" for the past nine years; one of the best regular season teams but falter in the tournament. Since 2002, Pitt has lost in the Sweet Sixteen four times and only seen the Elite Eight once. To say that coach Jamie Dixon is on the "hot seat" for these failures would be completely ignorant. He has the best winning percentage in Big East history and tied the record for fastest coach to win 200 games. The fact that he has completed this run without a single first round NBA Draft pick is certainly impressive. With three starting seniors on this year's team, 2011 is the best opportunity for a deep run that they're going to get.
Team that will be toughest to project: St. John's
I have seen St. John's play twice now (vs. Pitt, @ Villanova) and they're one of the most exciting teams to watch. Each time they came out incredibly hot and built a big lead before letting the other team back in the game. Since they lost three straight at the end of January, St. John's has gone 8-1 with impressive victories against # 3 Duke, #9 UConn, #4 Pitt, and #14 Villanova. Over that stretch, Dwight Hardy has been averaging 25 points per game. A logical conclusion from this hot streak is that the team has become comfortable with first year coach Steve Lavin's game plan and coaching style. Working in their favor: Experience. Of their 9 players who have got quality minutes, 7 are seniors. Working against them: Experience. None of these players have been to the NCAA Tournament before and the only quality non-conference opponent they faced this season was St. Mary's in their first game of the season. It will be interesting to see what they can do on a neutral court against some of the other quality teams in the country. I could see them going as far as the Elite Eight, but they are also an easy target as a First Round upset if Dwight Hardy has a bad game.
Major Conference Tournament Most Likely to Have a Surprise Champion: SEC
Since 1992, Kentucky has dominated their tournament with 11 victories. Mississippi State and Florida have won the next most with three championships a piece. It has certainly lacked upsets. I think this year will be different because the conference is "Florida" and "Everyone else". I think they will have a lot of upsets in their tournament with someone other than division champions Florida and Alabama prevailing. Regardless of what happens, look for Florida to be the only SEC standing by the end of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
13 comments:
Thoughts on your thoughts:
My team with the most pressure will be the one who gets the overall number one seed. Since there is no true #1 team this year, whomever gets it is going to have to pretend and act like they're the top dog. I have a feeling it's going to be Kansas or Ohio State, provided they win out. My gut tells me Pitt falls to a #2...that Big East conference is brutal.
Toughest to project for me will be Texas. Loaded with talent, amazing run through the middle of this year, but Rick Barnes' teams always fall off during tournament time. That team could be a Final Four team, or a first/second round exit. St. Johns is for real, but you have to wonder if they're getting hot at the wrong time.
Agree with you on the SEC. And I think that surprise team would be Alabama. But the Pac 10 is wide open as well. Arizona is faltering, and Washington hasn't lived up to expectations. A team like UCLA could win the whole darn Pac 10 tournament (and no one would notice...probably).
I don't think people care much about the "overall number one seed". Here's why there isn't pressure on the other top teams.
Duke: obvious. They won it last year and they've been w/o their star player all season.
OSU: They have made the Final Four recently and Sullinger is expected to come back. With another top class coming in next year, they will have another chance.
Texas: They are YOUNG, so they should have more chances in the future. Plus, they didn't come in with lofty expectations this season.
Kansas: If Morris' come back, they will have another chance. They also won a championship recently.
Those 4 teams you mentioned, especially Duke and OSU, are going to be picked by TONS of people to win the National Championship (more than Pitt). When people pick you to win it all, and you're a #1 seed, I think it doesn't matter if your young or old, or what the future holds, the pressure is on.
I think the difference is that I am not considering "picked by a lot of people to win it all" pressure. I am considering "team who needs most to prove something this year" pressure. Of those teams you mentioned, the only one besides Pitt who hasn't had success lately is Texas. OSU hasn't won a championship, but the last time they had a team as good as this one, they went to the National Championship game. Texas has been this good in recent years and they have underperformed in the Tourney. The difference I see is that the Big East is a much better conference this year than the Big 12 and Texas is a young team, so they should have another opportunity to win next year. Pitt is going to lose a lot of players, so NOW is their opportunity to shine.
Also, I am not saying that the expectation is that Pitt needs to win the championship. I am saying that anything less than a Final Four run will be a failure for them. They HAVE to shake the stigma that they're the best regular season team but can't do anything in the Tourney.
You'll see what I'm saying once March Madness coverage starts. That is what they'll be talking about when Pitt comes up in the conversation.
Why we NEED Sullinger back:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/02/purdue-fans-serenade-ohio-states-jared-sullinger-with-miley-cyrus-song/1
At the game we went to, they showed him singing "Beat It"
Which is actually why they will not have the pressure other teams will. They will be viewed as a team that can't make it to the Final Four, and will therefore be written off. They will fly under the radar and in the shadows of the Dukes and OSUs. The national pressure won't be as big as perhaps the pressure from their own fanbase.
Also, Jamie Dixon has the most wins of any college coach to start his career (first 8 years I think?), so he's done the whole rebuild-and-reload thing more than once, and done it with success. As a Pitt fan, I would have no reason to believe that Pitt won't be ultra-competitive during the next four year stretch (as much as OSU, Texas, or Kansas).
Ugh... you're starting to piss me off. Yes, Jamie Dixon has the most wins to start his career. I basically said that in my original post (tied for fastest to 200 wins). He has reloaded well, but their fan base is starting to get anxious for them to live up to their postseason expectations. If you achieve the same mediocre results in the tournament over and over, fans are going to start wanting more no matter how successful they are in the regular season.
Proof:
http://pittnews.com/newsstory/jovenitti-10-reasons-why-pitt-mens-basketball-can-win-it-all/
"But Pitt basketball fans actually have plenty of reasons to believe that this is the year the Panthers could finally break the Final Four barrier, and maybe even win it all."
"2. It’s only a matter of time. This is Dixon’s eighth year as head coach. A coach of his caliber will learn from his past Tournament mistakes, and hopefully it won’t be long before Pitt makes it over that Final Four hurdle."
http://pittnews.com/newsstory/oltmanns-questions-pitt-needs-to-answer-in-order-to-make-final-four/
"5. Can this Pitt team finally get over that elusive Final Four hurdle?
The Panthers have made it to the Sweet 16 five times in the last decade. But could this be the year they achieve that elusive Final Four berth?"
http://pittnews.com/newsstory/basketball-preview-mens-team-an-example-of-versatility/
"'I think all of our expectations are high,' Brown said. 'The goal is to exceed all those expectations that everyone puts out there for us and to do something special. No pressure at all.'"
....and if you need proof that it's being discussed nationally...
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/23112/pitt-outlasts-villanova-in-big-east-slugfest
"But in 14 weeks of poll voting, the best team from the best league has yet to receive a single vote.
'I think it’s time for us to be in the conversation among the elite,' Brad Wanamaker said. 'But really, we want to be in the conversation among the elite at the end of the season, not now. When they start talking about the national championship, that’s when we want to be talked about.’
Ah, but therein lies the chronic rub with the Panthers, the dirty little secret that maybe has kept voters from casting their ballots in Pitt’s favor.
The Panthers have won at least 10 conference games in each of the past 10 seasons and have won 211 games since Jamie Dixon took over as head coach for the 2003-2004 season -- the fifth-most among Division I teams.
For all of that success, Pitt has no Final Fours appearances during that time. The Panthers were tantalizingly close two seasons ago, making it to the Elite Eight before Nova's Scottie Reynolds quashed the Panthers’ dream in one coast-to-coast dash.
Other than that, it has been during the Sweet 16 or earlier rounds that Pitt leaves the party.
And so fairly or not, the Panthers have been labeled a team built to withstand the rigors of the Big East but not necessarily built to win it all.
This team, though, might be different.
'This is as tough and as good a team as they’ve had,’ Villanova coach Jay Wright said."
Haha, this is how Kevin must feel when he pisses me off =).
I understand everything you are saying. They are chronic underachievers when it comes to the tournament, and everyone realizes that. Got it.
And I'm not saying there's not pressure on Pitt, it's just not as great- in my opinion- as some of the other schools.
Pitt doesn't expect to win National Championships. Sorry, they may want to, but those aren't realistic year-in, year-out expectations. They'd be happy to get to a Final Four. Duke. Ohio State. North Carolina. Kentucky. Those are pressure packed programs that have fan bases that want championships and nothing else. That's why the Brad Daughertys and Billy Gillespies don't last. When you get the blue-chip talent, you better win with it at those schools. That's the pressure.
I will concede that Duke, UNC, and Kansas are bigger College Basketball fans than Pittsburgh. That's because CBK is the PRIMARY sport in each of those locations. In Pittsburgh, it's the Steelers and more recently the Penguins. In Columbus, it's football (they started a student section very recently and don't have Midnight Madness.
I am changing the category officially to "Team with the most to prove", which is what I meant by pressure. Happy?
Yes, I will go along with that. Although I don't think you have to change the category. They certainly do have pressure. We just disagree, that's all. Nothing wrong with a little sports debating!
Anyway, I've been trying to think of a team out there they may have more to prove, but I'm stuck. Pittsburgh's consistently been at the top all year long and are considered elite. Time for them to prove it...for once.
The college basketball team with the most to prove?
Caltech. The teams you guys are debating are the cream of the crop in the NCAA. Caltech has to prove that they have the fundamental basketball skills needed to compete.
They just broke a 310 game conference losing streak....prove the win wasn't a fluke!
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