MSU Football Preview

This season will be pivitol for Michigan State's football program.  Since his first year as the Head Coach in 2007, Mark Dantonio has improved the program each season (with the exception of the 2009 backslide when he took thee quarters of the season to realize Kirk Cousins was his starting quarterback).  His records were 7-6, 9-4, that horrible 6-7 in 2009, 11-2 (when he won a share of the B1G title), and 11-3 (when he won the B1G Championship game.  Oh, wait, we lost it because the refs blew it for us).  The natural next step for the team in its ascension would be, of course, the illusive Rose Bowl appearance.  There are a lot of challenges that Dantonio must overcome in order for MSU to avoid taking a giant step back; Urban Meyer, U-M's recruiting dominance, and breaking in a new quarterback (remember, the last time we had to was that 2009 backslide).

To satisfy my excitement for the upcoming season, I have read several in the past few weeks.  Some have bordered on the absurd.  Take, for example, Athlon's B1G Must See Games of 2012  Here's a quick synopsis:

• Sentence #2: "Here are the Big 12's top 30 must-see football games for the 2012 season".  Two problems - though we do indeed have 12 teams, we're still the Big Ten and they actually rank 35 games.
• In what world should Iowa State at Iowa (#27) or Purdue at Illinois (#35) be ranked as a "Top Game"?
• I love that MSU is in 3 of the top 4 games

Rather than making my usual game-by-game predictions for how I think MSU will fair this season, I present two different scenarios that I think could happen.  In 2012, I think MSU has a chance to run the table or they can return to the middle-of-the-B1G-pack and go 7-5.

Michigan State Could Go Undefeated

Though this team doesn't feel like an undefeated team on paper, my belief that we could REALLY have a special season is rooted in the fact that I believe we could win each game individually.  Here's why...

1) Boise State lost Kellen Moore, ranked 3^rd in Passer Rating with a 43 TD, 9 INT performance last year.  Though we lost our QB as well, they lost much more in Kellen Moore (not to mention their top RB and WR).  If there was any year to play them, this is it.
2) It's true that we lost to Central Michigan a few years ago, but without Dan Lefevour I don't think this will be close.
3) I haven't yet seen anyone call the Notre Dame game the toughest on our schedule, but I really think it is because our matchups are usually a crapshoot.  Home field advantage and the team's desire for retribution after last year could swing it in our favor.
4) Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota - I am not going to waste words discussing why we should win these games.
5) Last year's Ohio State game was close at the end, but only because our lackluster offense couldn't find any rhythm.  It was cold and rainy and our drives fizzled out on incomplete passes and short runs.  The key that will carry over to this year's contest was that our defense pressured Braxton Miller on every play.  I am sure that a year's worth of experience will help him improve, but they could still be a year or two away from reestablishing their prestige.
6) Marvin McNutt and Marcus Coker were so important to Iowa's offense (their #2 rusher last season had only 79 yards) that their absence in 2012 should decimate Iowa's chances of fielding anything more than a mid-tier B1G team.  Iowa's strong offensive lines and defense are a constant, but when they don't have any weapons on offense they aren't competitive
7) I see Sunday, September 23rd as the official date for the annual "Denard Robinson is the most exciting player in College Football" hype to end and the "Can 'Shoelaces' be a competitive quarterback" debate to begin.  That's the day after U-M travels to Notre Dame.  If not then, it will come after we face him.  Denard was 9-24 123yd 1TD/1INT last year and 17-29 215y 1TD/3INT the year before against us. He rushed for 42 and 86 yds respectively.  When he is prevented from being a Dual Threat Quarterback, Denard is mediocre. 
8) The most important thing to consider about Wisconsin is that their new QB is NOT Russell Wilson, who lead the NCAA in Passer Rating and had a 33 TD (plus 6 rushing TDs), 4 INT performance last season.  Though last season provided two legendary games that will live on through the B1G Network for years to come, I think they 2012 version is a little overrated.  I recognize what Montee' Ball brings to the table, but I think a few top offensive linemen (Kevin Zeitler was drafted in Round 1 and Peter Konz in Round 2) deserve some of the credit for his Heisman candidate performance last year.
9) We get to face Nebraska at home… that’s huge.  They come to East Lansing at the tail-end of a tough stretch of games – Wisconsin, @ OSU, @ Northwestern,  Michigan.  Three of those games are night games, so an afternoon game in East Lansing could be tough for them to get excited about.  Don’t forget that we faced them at the end of a tough 3 game stretch of our own last season.  The game before we faced Nebraska last year was the Wisconsin Hail Mary game. 
10) Northwestern's Kain Colter is one of the most experienced new starting quarterbacks in the country, having made an appearance in every game last season.  They shouldn't provide too much of a challenge for MSU, who faces them at home after a bye week.

Michigan State Could Go 7-5

….they ONLY have to replace a QB ranked in the top 30 in almost every statistical category and over 80% of their receiving yards from last season.  Michigan State also ranked 78^th in rushing yards and lost the #2 RB, Edwin Baker.  Perhaps we should lower our expectations and be prepared for a little bit of a backslide.  After all, here are the records of our past 3 QBs in their first season.
2009 - Kirk Cousins: 6-7
2007 - Brian Hoyer - 7-6
2004 - Drew Stanton (with Damon Dowdell and Steven Reaves... wow) - 5-7

The word from the coaches seems to be that Tennessee transfer DeAnthony Arnett isn't progressing as expected, so it looks like their best hope is to spread the ball around.  Half of MSU's opponents pose serious threats, so I could see them losing as many as five games and here's why:
1) Boise State -  They are used to starting the season with a win against a tough opponent.  They're 3-0 vs. Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Georgia in the past 3 seasons.
2) Notre Dame - Returning a large core of their 8-5 team
3) Ohio State - Last year's team played with many distractions, a lame duck "interim" head coach, and a freshman quarterback.  This year's team has Urban Meyer and that alone will give Braxton Miller the confidence to drastically improve.
4) Michigan - While MSU returns a great defense, does the loss of Jerel Worthy hurt our ability to contain Denard Robinson?  If he is able to finally gain ground against MSU, U-M should be able to end the losing steak
5) Wisconsin - Winning at Camp Randall is tough.  Before Russell Wilson, the Badgers were able to win through staunch defense and consistent running, not strong QB play.  If transfer Danny O'Brien is able to perform like he did his freshman year (2438 yds, 22 TD, 8 INT) rather than he did last year (1648 yds, 7 TD, 8 INT) they will easily win the Leaders Division (while PSU and OSU are ineligible).
6) Nebraska - They too return a lot of talent from last year's team.  Only four Huskers were drafted this year and only one of those was taken before the 4th round.  Another ugly defensive game that goes to the team with the better rushing performance would favor Rex Burkhead and Nebraska.

So, which is it?
We're most likely going to see Michigan State somewhere in the middle - a 9-3 or an 8-4 season where we drop one preconference game and a few conference ones.  We should be in the mix for the Legends championship for much of the season, but someone else will likely be the ones to face Wisconsin in the B1G Title game.  I am trying to hold back my optimism because the last time I thought we could win every game was the 2002 "Smoke/Fire" season.