I wrote this shortly before the fantasy draft. My post-draft thoughts are in italics.
I have a very clear idea of what I want to draft each round. I practiced it in a mock draft and was pretty successful. The positions I want each round are:
1 - RB (I know I'm taking CJ)
2/3 - QB & WR
Rivers & Wayne
4/5 - WR & RB
Ryan Grant & Boldin
6/7 - QB & TE
Eli and Vernon Davis
8/9 - RB & WR
85 and Jonathan Stewart
10/11 - DEF & RB
Green Bay and Kyle Orton - I noticed that solid QB options were flying away, so I knew it was time to get #3
12/13 - WR & QB
Malcom Floyd and Felix Jones (because I took the QB in the previous round)
14/15 - WR & K
Kenny Britt, Matt Forte, and Kicker - forgot there were 16 rounds
I came up with this plan to address each position in the optimal timeframe. I want to have a top-tier player at RB, QB, and WR, so I think it makes most sense to take one in each of the first three rounds. I don't think a round 4 QB will be too different from a round 6/7, so that is why I am fine with waiting to find my second string QB. The only reason why I would divert from this strategy is if there is someone too tempting left on the board (like Ryan Mathews in round 2/3).
Interestingly enough, Ryan Mathews was there!! It was a hard decision and I took a minute to make up my mind. In the end, taking a rookie RB was too risky to forfeit a solid QB and WR with years of strong results. I am really happy with how the strategy worked out. It was a lot safer than being tempted by who was the "best available" and screwing myself in the end at one position. I ended up picking a lot of the "safer" players than newer starters.
As for the QB selection timing, the round 4 QBs were Flacco and Cutler while the round 6/7 QBs were Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Eli (the one I got), and McNabb. Point proven.
Players I like for their potential increased value (I'm not going to say "upside"!): Terrell Owens, Steve Breaston, Matt Moore, Chad Henne, Jerome Harrison, Cedric Benson, Chris Cooley
...and I didn't get any of them. Breaston, Moore, and Harrison are even Free Agents! I wish I would have gotten Benson - I was three picks too late. I am thinking about making a move to pick up a free agent or two, but I think it's best to wait until closer to the start of the season. I want to see who ends up starting in a number of slots.
Players I am probably over-valuing: Jahvid Best, Carson Palmer, Austin Collie, Kellen Winslow
Collie and Winslow are also available post-draft. I am hopeful for Jahvid, but I am very concerned about our O-line's ability to open a crack.
Players I don't like: Brett Favre, Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Steven Jackson, Hines Ward, Brandon Marshall
Interesting that four of these six players went to two teams (and also appear on Mike's worst pick list). In retrospect, the only one I think that went at the right time was SJax. The others were taken too early.
2 comments:
Wow! I'm really impressed you were able to follow your draft plan almost to a 'T'. You got some great RBs late, too. You have a nice balance of proven backs with some low-risk/high-reward backs.
Funny we're down on a lot of the same players. I guess I don't hate SJax as much as you, but in the 4th round his value seems okay. If he was taken in the 1st or 2nd...no thank you.
Why do you think you're overvaluing Kellen Winslow? If tight end wasn't so deep this year, I think he'd be a great weekly starter. 900 yards and 6TDs maybe? Or am I overvaluing him too, haha?
I was just thinking yesterday that I wish our benches were bigger! There's like 8 guys I want to stash on the bench. Ah well.
My plan was to go QB/WR, then wing it.
I went QB/RB. Luckily, it didn't mess up the second part of my plan.
Side note: what is the past tense of "wing it." Winged it? Wung it?
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