TLYOTBTAWKI

Yep, this year is the last year of the Big Ten as we know it.

I feel horrible saying this, but part of me is not looking forward to the start of the college football season.  It's my favorite sport and Michigan State is on the rise, but living in Columbus is draining.

This is our fourth September in Columbus, so I know the pattern.  The season will start out with Buckeye fans sticking out their chest proudly while complaining about every single negative comment made by someone on ESPN criticizing OSU or the quality of the Big 10 (which they directly correlate with OSU).  By the third game, they've either lost to another good team or they've won a close game against a cupcake school.  At this point, when their pride is hurt, they shut up for a little while.  Finally, they will lose a game or two against another top Big 10 team (or worse - a bad Big 10 team).  At this point, they throw someone under the bus - Jim Tressel, the O-Line, Terrell Pryor - and spend the rest of the season talking about 8-1... their record against U-M for the past nine years.     

This year will be no different because they're ranked #2 and Pryor is a pre-season Heisman favorite.  Apparently his performance in the Rose Bowl alone made everyone forget about the complaints they made about him during the regular season last year.  With that being said, here is my college football preview.  I can't believe it's back already - fall is almost here!

Predicted Big 10 Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
4. Penn State
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Northwestern
9. Minnesota
10. Illinois
11. Indiana

Michigan State Season Outlook
The biggest thing that jumps out when reviewing our schedule is October 23rd - the first time our team leaves the state.  HOW DOES THIS HAPPEN??? Who gets six of their first seven games at home? 
Western Michigan - W
Very lop-sided victory last year.  This year should be much of the same.
Florida Atlantic - W
**Warning** Trap game!!!  Our 2008 rain-soaked game felt closer than the 17-0 score indicated.  Their best player, QB Rusty Smith, couldn't get going due to the weather.  Their new QB, Jeff Vancamp, completed 59% of his passes last year while throwing 12 TDs and only 2 INTs after taking over for the injured Smith halfway through the season.
Notre Dame - W
We should have won this game last season.  Knowing Dantonio, he has this one circled on his schedule.  It is always a close game and we typicalls alternate W/L with them.
Northern Colorado - W
We need to stop scheduling FCS teams.  Interesting fact: In 1999 Northern Colorado QB Corte McGuffey won the Harlon Hill Tropy as the Division II Player of the Year!  Let's move on...
Wisconsin - L
Tolzein threw for 2700 yards last year and completed 64% of his passes.  Clay rushed for 5.3 YPC.  They are returning most of their players, so I don't think we have the talent to keep up.  If it is a close game, I think our kicking game costs us this one. 
@ Michigan - L
The streak is over.  They have a ridiculous ability to overcome any deficit against us.  We had to go into overtime to defeat them last year and they only defeated one Big 10 team.  I think RichRod looks at this game as one of the "must wins" for him to keep his job.
Illinois - W
Probably the easiest conference game on our schedule.
@ Northwestern - W
They had a great passing game last year, but Kafka is gone.
@ Iowa - L
We haven't won at Kinnick Stadium since 1989!!!
Minnesota - W
We get them after back-to-back games against Penn State and Ohio State. 
Purdue - W
If Miami-transfer QB Robert Marve reaches his potential, this game may be close.
@ Penn State - L
We haven't won at Penn State since 1965!!!!!!!!!! (Although we didn't play them between 1966-93)

So I'm predicting 8-4, which happens to be the same thing I predicted last year.

Heisman Predictions
I think the top 3 finalists will be Terrell Pryor, Kellen Moore, and Mark Ingram with Kellen Moore taking the award.  My "dark horse" candidate is Dion Lewis - RB from Pitt.  I watched him in the game against Cincinnati last year and was blown away. 

National Championship
I think that the National Championship game depends on Boise State's ability to go undefeated.  They are starting high enough in the polls that they will wind up 1 or 2 if they win out.  I don't believe two other teams will go undefeated.  If they lose a game, I think that one-loss Ohio State will get their spot.  The team that one of them will face?  Oklahoma.  I'm rooting for the Fiesta Bowl rematch.

Looking Ahead
The reaction today in Columbus to the Big Ten divisional split in Columbus was mixed.  The competitive balance seems to be fairly even, but Buckeyes are concerned that "The Game" doesn't mean as much since they are in separate divisions.  At least they are keeping it as the last game... for now.

I personally would have divided them up as:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern, Illinois (Academia Division)
Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue   (Corn-Fed Division)

However, I am fairly happy to be in the division we are.  (Our sports radio station dubbed them "Buckeye Division" and "The right to get beaten down by the Buckeyes" division).  The teams in our division, Michigan State included, have been very up-and-down in the past decade.  The opposite division contains consistency in OSU, Wisco, and Penn State.  I am hoping our team will be able to exceed my expectations this year because our 2011 schedule will be brutal.  We lost our scheduled games against Illinois, Penn State, and Purdue and gained Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa.  That doesn't sound very even to me.  I predict within the first 3 years of the new Big 10, Nebraska will win the conference at least once. 

It's an exciting time in college football right now and I think we can expect major changes to continue in the next 5-10 years.