Quarterly Report

After three games into the college football season, I feel very comfortable with my preseason analysis.  I think it is appropriate to make some judgements about this year's team.  What we've seen is what we're going to get.  While they are 3-0 for the first time since 2007, Michigan State has been disappointing this season for the most part.  The defense, lead by Greg Jones (who Sports Illustrated named as the best player in college football before the year began), has not been able to get pressure on the quarterback or force turnovers.  Jones, who was listed for a pleathora of preseason awards, has only 1 sack and 2 tackles-for-loss.  The NCAA leader has 1 more than our entire team (5 vs. 4) and we rank tied for 80th in the country in sacks.  Our two team interceptions puts us tied for 58th.  Before Michigan State can make it to the next level, which I think means finishing seasons with no more than 5 losses and occasionally seeing a BCS game, we need a defense that can change the momentum in games.

The other player who has underwhelmed so far this year is Cousins.  MSU is tied for 78th in the country in passing yards per game, but some of that can be attributed to a surprising potent running game, which ranks 16th in YPG and is 5th best in YPA.  Cousins does not emit the confidence and decision making skills of a 2nd year quarterback that some labeled the best pro-style QB in the Big 10.  He has not established a connection with a solid, "go to" receiver, which is also largely due to Mark Dell's lack of improvement.  Drew Sharp called out Cousins this morning by saying, "he is more a game-manager than game-changer".  I felt that Cousins was going to be our best quarterback since Jeff Smoker, but that does not appear likely anymore.  I think I will be satisfied with an 8-4 season, but this is MSU's best opportunity to succeed for a while, so I wish we could accomplish so much more.  We have a fairly veteran team, we don't have to play Ohio State, and we don't have to worry about Nebraska yet.  I think Mark Dantonio has brought great leadership and impressive recruting to the program, so I am not about to throw him under the bus or put him on any kind of "hot seat".  However, I think he and his coaching staff must bring more creativity to the offense.  Cousins often looked uncomfortable in the pocket last night when he was pressured and Notre Dame seemed to have much of our play calling strategy figured out.  The fake FG in OT was a gutsy call (or perhaps a product of not trusting our new kicker in crunch time) and I would like to see more of that in the future.  Especially in big game situations.

The Rest of the NCAA    
-Perhaps I underestimated Alabama's capability of making a repeat appearance in the BCS National Championship game.  They have run over their opponents so far and the SEC is young this year.  The next three weeks will be the real test: @ Arkansas, vs. Florida, @ S. Carolina. 

-What does it take for a conference to lose their BCS-protected status?  The eight team Big East has more teams with two losses so far (Cincinnati, Louisville, and UConn) than undefeated teams (WVU and Rutgers).  Rutgers had a bye this week and almost lost to Florida International last week.  The highest ranked Big East team in scoring (S. Florida) is 25th in the country.  They are 1-5 against BCS conference teams so far this year and that statistic is about to get much worse.  Big East teams play #17 Miami, #7 Oklahoma, and # 15 LSU next week. 

-While I'm thinking about it, the ACC needs to improve as well.  They also have more two loss teams than undefeated teams.  Perhaps they should fight over one automatic BCS bid and call it the "Basketball Powerhouse Conference Championship Game".  I'm all for the BPCCG.

-Is Oklahoma good or not?  I really don't know.  They barely beat Utah State, then destroy Florida State, then squeak by Air Force.  They're 18th in the country in passing, but 80th in rushing.  29th in points for, but 62nd in points allowed (surprising since they are known for having a stout defense).  With as weak as the Big 12 this year, their October 2nd matchup with Texas should be the only thing standing in the way between them and a Big 12 Championship game matchup with Nebraska. 

-Michigan is certainly ecstatic over Denard Robinson, who should have the nickname "RichRod's Job Security".  But what about Rodriguez's castoff QBs?  Ryan Mallett leads the NCAA in passing yards for Arkansas and Arizona State's Steven Threet is 15th.  If Rodriguez would have been willing to adapt his offensive scheme to the talent he had, how much better would U-M have been in the past few years with Mallett on board?  Can you imagine Mallett leading the offense with Robinson coming in for trick plays or lining up as a RB?

-Stacey and I will be spending our 1st year anniversary at a resort outside Cleveland going to some wineries.  It's going to be very peaceful and beautiful.  But how drunk do you think I need to get her to see the Wisconsin game?

Another Day in Life

I have been trying to make a change in my life since about April.  To this point, I have probably made about 30-40 attempts.  I have been able to successfully put myself in a mindset where I am detached from the situation so I leave everything behind and am not complaining about it all day.  I am anxious to make the change because I feel like every day that I am still in my current routine, I am disrespecting my mom in some way by settling.  You have a limited amount of time on Earth, so it is a waste of that time and energy to not take every advantage you can.  She doesn't have those opportunities any more so I feel like I have to make the most out of my time.  I want to use my time doing things that are worthwhile and important and this is not it.

TLYOTBTAWKI

Yep, this year is the last year of the Big Ten as we know it.

I feel horrible saying this, but part of me is not looking forward to the start of the college football season.  It's my favorite sport and Michigan State is on the rise, but living in Columbus is draining.

This is our fourth September in Columbus, so I know the pattern.  The season will start out with Buckeye fans sticking out their chest proudly while complaining about every single negative comment made by someone on ESPN criticizing OSU or the quality of the Big 10 (which they directly correlate with OSU).  By the third game, they've either lost to another good team or they've won a close game against a cupcake school.  At this point, when their pride is hurt, they shut up for a little while.  Finally, they will lose a game or two against another top Big 10 team (or worse - a bad Big 10 team).  At this point, they throw someone under the bus - Jim Tressel, the O-Line, Terrell Pryor - and spend the rest of the season talking about 8-1... their record against U-M for the past nine years.     

This year will be no different because they're ranked #2 and Pryor is a pre-season Heisman favorite.  Apparently his performance in the Rose Bowl alone made everyone forget about the complaints they made about him during the regular season last year.  With that being said, here is my college football preview.  I can't believe it's back already - fall is almost here!

Predicted Big 10 Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
4. Penn State
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Northwestern
9. Minnesota
10. Illinois
11. Indiana

Michigan State Season Outlook
The biggest thing that jumps out when reviewing our schedule is October 23rd - the first time our team leaves the state.  HOW DOES THIS HAPPEN??? Who gets six of their first seven games at home? 
Western Michigan - W
Very lop-sided victory last year.  This year should be much of the same.
Florida Atlantic - W
**Warning** Trap game!!!  Our 2008 rain-soaked game felt closer than the 17-0 score indicated.  Their best player, QB Rusty Smith, couldn't get going due to the weather.  Their new QB, Jeff Vancamp, completed 59% of his passes last year while throwing 12 TDs and only 2 INTs after taking over for the injured Smith halfway through the season.
Notre Dame - W
We should have won this game last season.  Knowing Dantonio, he has this one circled on his schedule.  It is always a close game and we typicalls alternate W/L with them.
Northern Colorado - W
We need to stop scheduling FCS teams.  Interesting fact: In 1999 Northern Colorado QB Corte McGuffey won the Harlon Hill Tropy as the Division II Player of the Year!  Let's move on...
Wisconsin - L
Tolzein threw for 2700 yards last year and completed 64% of his passes.  Clay rushed for 5.3 YPC.  They are returning most of their players, so I don't think we have the talent to keep up.  If it is a close game, I think our kicking game costs us this one. 
@ Michigan - L
The streak is over.  They have a ridiculous ability to overcome any deficit against us.  We had to go into overtime to defeat them last year and they only defeated one Big 10 team.  I think RichRod looks at this game as one of the "must wins" for him to keep his job.
Illinois - W
Probably the easiest conference game on our schedule.
@ Northwestern - W
They had a great passing game last year, but Kafka is gone.
@ Iowa - L
We haven't won at Kinnick Stadium since 1989!!!
Minnesota - W
We get them after back-to-back games against Penn State and Ohio State. 
Purdue - W
If Miami-transfer QB Robert Marve reaches his potential, this game may be close.
@ Penn State - L
We haven't won at Penn State since 1965!!!!!!!!!! (Although we didn't play them between 1966-93)

So I'm predicting 8-4, which happens to be the same thing I predicted last year.

Heisman Predictions
I think the top 3 finalists will be Terrell Pryor, Kellen Moore, and Mark Ingram with Kellen Moore taking the award.  My "dark horse" candidate is Dion Lewis - RB from Pitt.  I watched him in the game against Cincinnati last year and was blown away. 

National Championship
I think that the National Championship game depends on Boise State's ability to go undefeated.  They are starting high enough in the polls that they will wind up 1 or 2 if they win out.  I don't believe two other teams will go undefeated.  If they lose a game, I think that one-loss Ohio State will get their spot.  The team that one of them will face?  Oklahoma.  I'm rooting for the Fiesta Bowl rematch.

Looking Ahead
The reaction today in Columbus to the Big Ten divisional split in Columbus was mixed.  The competitive balance seems to be fairly even, but Buckeyes are concerned that "The Game" doesn't mean as much since they are in separate divisions.  At least they are keeping it as the last game... for now.

I personally would have divided them up as:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern, Illinois (Academia Division)
Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue   (Corn-Fed Division)

However, I am fairly happy to be in the division we are.  (Our sports radio station dubbed them "Buckeye Division" and "The right to get beaten down by the Buckeyes" division).  The teams in our division, Michigan State included, have been very up-and-down in the past decade.  The opposite division contains consistency in OSU, Wisco, and Penn State.  I am hoping our team will be able to exceed my expectations this year because our 2011 schedule will be brutal.  We lost our scheduled games against Illinois, Penn State, and Purdue and gained Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa.  That doesn't sound very even to me.  I predict within the first 3 years of the new Big 10, Nebraska will win the conference at least once. 

It's an exciting time in college football right now and I think we can expect major changes to continue in the next 5-10 years.