I feel like we've been in this situation before. We had victories earlier in the season against Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame, and were coming off a road vicroty at Northwestern. Michigan State was undefeated in Big Ten play and was receiving a lot of hype before a big game. Once the game began it was immediately clear that we could not rise to the occasion or were perhaps not as good as promoted. By the end of the first quarter, we were already down 21-0. That heartbreaker of a game was our 2008 matchup with Ohio State that ended in a 45-7 loss. The box score of that one is very similar to yesterday's - completely stuffed on the running game (only 52 and 31 yards respectively), an unusually high number of turnovers (5 and 3). I was excited and confident going into that 2008 game and felt immediately deflated (see also 2008 National Championship game vs. North Carolina.) Perhaps I learned my lesson from those games, because I was leery going into Saturday.
I bring up these bad sports memories not to dwell on the past, but to make a point: before Michigan State can take it to the top level, they need to learn how to deal with success and come prepared to play their hardest as a team against the top opponents. Note that I said "top level" - I think that their performance this season has been notably superior to any MSU team in the past decade (as long as they win out, of course). While this season no longer has the potential to be an incredibly amazing season, it still has the ability to become a very special season with a trip to the Rose Bowl. The new goal of the team should be to close out the season strong and win its first bowl game in several years.
-Since we no longer have a chance at the National Championship game, did anyone else jump the "give Boise State a chance" bandwagon? I would much rather see them than Ohio State. After all, OSU didn't even have to play us (that one gives my coworkers a good laugh).
-What happened to our running game? It used to be a strength, but now we can't run on anybody? Is our o-line not creating gaps or did our running backs lose that spark?
-Seeing Chris Rucker play yesterday was a disappointment. I wonder if the situation would have played out differently if we were playing against Eastern Michigan or if we were the ones that came out to the quick lead.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Sparty On
I don't think I have ever screamed louder at my TV as I did this afternoon. In my opinion, this makes it a 1 game season. I can't imagine we could have a let down against Purdue or Minnesota at home and if we're undefeated going into the Penn State game, I think we'll be able to close out the last game of the season. With College Gameday likely to be broadcast from Iowa City next week, here's my thoughts on things I like and things that need to be improved. (Note: Gameday actually chose Los Angeles, the site of USC/Oregon in attempt to keep their streak of dooming the #1 team alive.)
Three Things I Like
-Cousins is really starting to step up as a leader and take over games when the rest of our team isn't getting the job done. Our WRs are doing a good job of limiting the number of drops, but much of that is due to Cousins putting the ball in the right spot for them.
-For the second week in a row, our team has been able to completely turn the momentum of the game around and gut out a win. Losing a game that was within our grasp used to be a weakness of the "old" Michigan State, but we have turned the tables around.
-We continue to appear to be a team of destiny. The decision to go for the fake punt on 4th and 11 instead of having Cousins run a play on 4th and 6 makes me think they believe it too and they're testing how long they can keep it up. Everything has fallen into place perfectly this season to give us the best opportunity to have success (no OSU on the schedule and they lose, fake FG to beat ND, Penn State is down this year, Wisco is a home game...)
Four Things that Must be Improved
1. Slow Starts
Many people will point out the 2nd half comebacks against Northwestern and Illinois, however the problem with slow starts has plagued MSU all season. The last time they scored a touchdown in the first quarter was a month ago against Northern Colorado. Over the course of the season, they have only scored first quarter touchdowns against two other teams - predictably, Western Michigan and Atlantic. To drive this problem home, here are their drive summaries until they scored against their Big 10 opponents.
Northwestern
3 plays, 9 yards PUNT
3 plays, 6 yards PUNT
3 plays, 25 yards FUMBLE
3 plays, 9 yards PUNT
9 plays, 36 yards FG MISSED
First TD: 3 mins left in 2nd Quarter
Illinois
6 plays, 10 yards PUNT
6 plays, 19 yards PUNT
4 plays, 5 yards TURNOVER ON DOWNS
First score: 7 mins left in 2nd Quarter, FG
First TD: 8 mins left in 3rd Quarter
Michigan
7 plays, 24 yards PUNT
4 plays, 23 yards PUNT
First TD: 11 mins left in 2nd Quarter
Wisconsin
First score: 9 mins left in 1st Quarter, FG
First TD: 30secs left in 2nd Quarter
Because I am a statistics junky (or a dork with too much time on my hands), I figured out that MSU has averaged only 5.8 plays for 24.5 yards for first quarter drives over their games against real opponents (so excluding N. Colorado, WMU and FAU). In comparison, Iowa is averaging 5.5 plays for 44 yards during their games against real competition (Big 10 opponents and Arizona). I would love to see a Wisconsin vs. Ohio State type of start to the game.
2. Iowa's Strong Defense
Although we have played 3 teams ranked between 20-30 in points allowed, we have not played anyone ranked higher than us (17th). Iowa currently ranks 6th best in the country in points allowed. Our offensive line must come better prepared for the challenge they will face than they have the last two weeks. We need to open up holes for our RBs and give Cousins some time to make the playaction work.
3. Kicking Concerns
You may thing I'm crazy for listing that as something MSU must overcome, but this is the first time that Dan Conroy is facing real pressure. He missed his 38 yard field goal today, which was his only try today. Will that sit on his mind all week and affect him next week? We need all of the points we can get against Iowa.
4. Third Down
The difference between MSU and Northwestern on 3rd down was a point of contention all day. Iowa is not exactly good on 3rd down either, but against quality opponents they are 48% and we're only 40%. For having as good of a running game as MSU has (or at least had) I am very surprised they don't convert more 3rd downs.
Three Things I Like
-Cousins is really starting to step up as a leader and take over games when the rest of our team isn't getting the job done. Our WRs are doing a good job of limiting the number of drops, but much of that is due to Cousins putting the ball in the right spot for them.
-For the second week in a row, our team has been able to completely turn the momentum of the game around and gut out a win. Losing a game that was within our grasp used to be a weakness of the "old" Michigan State, but we have turned the tables around.
-We continue to appear to be a team of destiny. The decision to go for the fake punt on 4th and 11 instead of having Cousins run a play on 4th and 6 makes me think they believe it too and they're testing how long they can keep it up. Everything has fallen into place perfectly this season to give us the best opportunity to have success (no OSU on the schedule and they lose, fake FG to beat ND, Penn State is down this year, Wisco is a home game...)
Four Things that Must be Improved
1. Slow Starts
Many people will point out the 2nd half comebacks against Northwestern and Illinois, however the problem with slow starts has plagued MSU all season. The last time they scored a touchdown in the first quarter was a month ago against Northern Colorado. Over the course of the season, they have only scored first quarter touchdowns against two other teams - predictably, Western Michigan and Atlantic. To drive this problem home, here are their drive summaries until they scored against their Big 10 opponents.
Northwestern
3 plays, 9 yards PUNT
3 plays, 6 yards PUNT
3 plays, 25 yards FUMBLE
3 plays, 9 yards PUNT
9 plays, 36 yards FG MISSED
First TD: 3 mins left in 2nd Quarter
Illinois
6 plays, 10 yards PUNT
6 plays, 19 yards PUNT
4 plays, 5 yards TURNOVER ON DOWNS
First score: 7 mins left in 2nd Quarter, FG
First TD: 8 mins left in 3rd Quarter
Michigan
7 plays, 24 yards PUNT
4 plays, 23 yards PUNT
First TD: 11 mins left in 2nd Quarter
Wisconsin
First score: 9 mins left in 1st Quarter, FG
First TD: 30secs left in 2nd Quarter
Because I am a statistics junky (or a dork with too much time on my hands), I figured out that MSU has averaged only 5.8 plays for 24.5 yards for first quarter drives over their games against real opponents (so excluding N. Colorado, WMU and FAU). In comparison, Iowa is averaging 5.5 plays for 44 yards during their games against real competition (Big 10 opponents and Arizona). I would love to see a Wisconsin vs. Ohio State type of start to the game.
2. Iowa's Strong Defense
Although we have played 3 teams ranked between 20-30 in points allowed, we have not played anyone ranked higher than us (17th). Iowa currently ranks 6th best in the country in points allowed. Our offensive line must come better prepared for the challenge they will face than they have the last two weeks. We need to open up holes for our RBs and give Cousins some time to make the playaction work.
3. Kicking Concerns
You may thing I'm crazy for listing that as something MSU must overcome, but this is the first time that Dan Conroy is facing real pressure. He missed his 38 yard field goal today, which was his only try today. Will that sit on his mind all week and affect him next week? We need all of the points we can get against Iowa.
4. Third Down
The difference between MSU and Northwestern on 3rd down was a point of contention all day. Iowa is not exactly good on 3rd down either, but against quality opponents they are 48% and we're only 40%. For having as good of a running game as MSU has (or at least had) I am very surprised they don't convert more 3rd downs.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Is This Really Happening?
Thing I am happy to be wrong about:
On the Wisconsin game: "I don't think we have the talent to keep up. If it is a close game, I think our kicking game costs us this one."
Dan Conroy is tied for most FG made of kickers who haven't missed.
Other unbelievable stats:
-We've played 3 of the top 16 leading rushers and held all of them under 100 yards
-We're tied for 3rd with 12 INTs on the year. Half of those came in the past two games. We only had 2 INTs in our first 3 games.
Ranking my fear of losing in the remaining games:
Oct 30 @ Iowa
Oct 23 @ Northwestern
Nov 27th @ Penn State
Nov 20th vs. Purdue
Nov 6th vs Minnesota
-Does anyone feel we are on a collision course to play Alabama?? How sweet would it be to stick it to Saban?
-Did anyone else know there is now a "Kraft Fight Hunger" Bowl? Unfortunately, it's not on Thanksgiving.
Other Bowl Matchups I would love to see:
Ohio State or Iowa vs. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers get a welcome party to the Big 10
Michigan vs. West Virginia - How badly would WVU fans boo Rich Rod?
Northwestern vs. TCU @ the Humanitarian Bowl - purple vs. purple on a blue field? I think every HD TV in the country would blow up
Other thoughts:
Why would ANY recruit choose Michigan over Michigan State at this point? U-M will likely lose at least 4 games this season and has a reasonable potential to lose another 2.
Why have the powers that be in college football decided that the system needs to give TCU and Boise State a shot the year that we are good? Can it be argued that we are more Boise State this year than Boise State? They need to develop a system that doesn't reward continuous success year after year so much. Roughly a quarter of every team is new each year, so there is going to be a lot of parity.
On the Wisconsin game: "I don't think we have the talent to keep up. If it is a close game, I think our kicking game costs us this one."
Dan Conroy is tied for most FG made of kickers who haven't missed.
Other unbelievable stats:
-We've played 3 of the top 16 leading rushers and held all of them under 100 yards
-We're tied for 3rd with 12 INTs on the year. Half of those came in the past two games. We only had 2 INTs in our first 3 games.
Ranking my fear of losing in the remaining games:
Oct 30 @ Iowa
Oct 23 @ Northwestern
Nov 27th @ Penn State
Nov 20th vs. Purdue
Nov 6th vs Minnesota
-Does anyone feel we are on a collision course to play Alabama?? How sweet would it be to stick it to Saban?
-Did anyone else know there is now a "Kraft Fight Hunger" Bowl? Unfortunately, it's not on Thanksgiving.
Other Bowl Matchups I would love to see:
Ohio State or Iowa vs. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers get a welcome party to the Big 10
Michigan vs. West Virginia - How badly would WVU fans boo Rich Rod?
Northwestern vs. TCU @ the Humanitarian Bowl - purple vs. purple on a blue field? I think every HD TV in the country would blow up
Other thoughts:
Why would ANY recruit choose Michigan over Michigan State at this point? U-M will likely lose at least 4 games this season and has a reasonable potential to lose another 2.
Why have the powers that be in college football decided that the system needs to give TCU and Boise State a shot the year that we are good? Can it be argued that we are more Boise State this year than Boise State? They need to develop a system that doesn't reward continuous success year after year so much. Roughly a quarter of every team is new each year, so there is going to be a lot of parity.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Saturday, October 09, 2010
Guster Live!
After watching them live tonight, I have a new appreciation for Guster's new album. They seemed to really be enjoying themselves and at one point said "this is the first time on our tour we felt like a band again". The beers at the venue were $6.75, but they were also 32 ounces. The cup looked like one they would fill with potato salad for you at the deli. A few other thoughts:
-Stacey at one point said "maybe it's inappropriate for me to be saying this to you, but the guy on the end is really cute". She was talking about Adam.
-I bet they regret making a song with ping pong balls at the end now that it means they will have them thrown on stage at every concert. I wonder if they even still play Airport Song anymore.
Here's what I can remember from the set list (in no order). There were a couple I couldn't remember. Really good set - especially the new songs. I was satisfied once they played Demons. Anyone want to guess their opening song?
Architects & Engineers
Do You Love Me
This Could All Be Yours (was as awesome live as you'd think it would be)
Bad Bad World
Demons
Manifest Destiny
Diane
Come Downstairs and Say Hello
Either Way
This is How It Feels to Have a Broken Heart
Hercules
What You Call Love (I think)
Jonah (I think)
Amsterdam
Backyard
What You Wish For
Happier
Satellite
The Captain
Hang On
Barrel of a Gun
-Stacey at one point said "maybe it's inappropriate for me to be saying this to you, but the guy on the end is really cute". She was talking about Adam.
-I bet they regret making a song with ping pong balls at the end now that it means they will have them thrown on stage at every concert. I wonder if they even still play Airport Song anymore.
Here's what I can remember from the set list (in no order). There were a couple I couldn't remember. Really good set - especially the new songs. I was satisfied once they played Demons. Anyone want to guess their opening song?
Architects & Engineers
Do You Love Me
This Could All Be Yours (was as awesome live as you'd think it would be)
Bad Bad World
Demons
Manifest Destiny
Diane
Come Downstairs and Say Hello
Either Way
This is How It Feels to Have a Broken Heart
Hercules
What You Call Love (I think)
Jonah (I think)
Amsterdam
Backyard
What You Wish For
Happier
Satellite
The Captain
Hang On
Barrel of a Gun
Thursday, October 07, 2010
A Second Easily Wonderful Opinion
Trying to find Guster's new album was much more difficult than I expected. I was sick and working from home on Tuesday, so I asked Stacey to pick it up for me. She couldn't find it at Meijer or Target, so I ventured out before work the next day. Since Best Buy was closed, I went to the Walmart next door (yep, I was that desperate to find it). No luck. When I returned to Best But after work, I looked in their "New Releases" section to no avail. I finally found a ton of copies under "G" in the Rock/Pop aisle. I shelled out the extra $6 for the Deluxe edition which only included the bonus songs (a decision that I am now second guessing). I thought it was pretty crappy that they didn't even include the lyrics to the bonus songs. I basically paid $2 a piece for them.
I have listened to the whole album once and again while I write this. The biggest thing I miss on this album are the bongos - not a single one!! My second observation is that they are really religious now! Two songs about Jesus, one about Jonah, and another about Heaven? Overall, I like most of the songs, even though I prefer their old sound. That being said, I don't think I would like it if this was my first "Guster experience". Here's my song-by-song thoughts with a scale of 1-5 bongos (I really do miss them!)
Architects & Engineers - 4 bongos
I like the lyrics - I mean, you have to since they mention Baltimore, right Mike? I can see this being one of their set list mainstays for a while. I'll see on Friday, I guess.
Do You Love Me - 3 bongos
I imagine this song being played during the opening of a romantic comedy or over the end credits. I see a montage of goofy pictures of a couple or grainy video of them laughing and kissing. It is very simple, upbeat and happy, but what almost ruins the song for me are the wedding chimes that play in the background. I can see this being played during Mike's wedding - whenever that is.
On The Ocean - 5 bongos
I think this song is the most like the "old Guster sound". There is a lot of complexity to the sound with the backup vocals, piano, guitar, etc. I like that they have 3 layers of vocals at one point. If I just downloaded certain songs from the album, this would have been the first.
This Could All Be Yours - 2 bongos
It could be more enjoyable live, but I feel like it's a
Stay With Me Jesus - 1 bongo
I feel like this was a rejected song from the Juno soundtrack. I don't get the lyrics at all. I think they were trying to be too "indie-folksongy". It didn't sound like Guster at all.
Bad Bad World - 4 bongos
I can understand why they chose this as one of the first songs they released. It helped set up the "transition" between their old sound and this CD. It's simple, but catchy.
This Is How It Feels To Have A Broken Heart - 2 bongos
Harmonica and banjo, huh? Wasn't horrible, but I didn't particularly like it.
What You Call Love - 4 bongos
Ukelele much better.
That's No Way To Get To Heaven - 3 bongos
I didn't get a strong feeling from this song either way. I did like the harmonies after the title.
Jesus And Mary - 1 bongo
Just bad. I can't imagine myself listening to this one much. Apparently I don't like songs they write about Jesus.
Hercules and Do What You Want- 3 bongos
Again, not a strong reaction either way. I kind of feel these were "throw away" songs to fill out the album. It doesn't feel like there was a lot of effort behind them. Much like my critiques of the last few songs!
Well - 4 bongos
A good "change of pace". I usually like their softer-toned songs.
Jonah - 4 bongos
I think they should have included this on the "regular" album and have left off some of the last few.
Lost At Sea - 3 bongos
Another "throw away song" in my opinion. Not very memorable.
I have listened to the whole album once and again while I write this. The biggest thing I miss on this album are the bongos - not a single one!! My second observation is that they are really religious now! Two songs about Jesus, one about Jonah, and another about Heaven? Overall, I like most of the songs, even though I prefer their old sound. That being said, I don't think I would like it if this was my first "Guster experience". Here's my song-by-song thoughts with a scale of 1-5 bongos (I really do miss them!)
Architects & Engineers - 4 bongos
I like the lyrics - I mean, you have to since they mention Baltimore, right Mike? I can see this being one of their set list mainstays for a while. I'll see on Friday, I guess.
Do You Love Me - 3 bongos
I imagine this song being played during the opening of a romantic comedy or over the end credits. I see a montage of goofy pictures of a couple or grainy video of them laughing and kissing. It is very simple, upbeat and happy, but what almost ruins the song for me are the wedding chimes that play in the background. I can see this being played during Mike's wedding - whenever that is.
On The Ocean - 5 bongos
I think this song is the most like the "old Guster sound". There is a lot of complexity to the sound with the backup vocals, piano, guitar, etc. I like that they have 3 layers of vocals at one point. If I just downloaded certain songs from the album, this would have been the first.
This Could All Be Yours - 2 bongos
It could be more enjoyable live, but I feel like it's a
Stay With Me Jesus - 1 bongo
I feel like this was a rejected song from the Juno soundtrack. I don't get the lyrics at all. I think they were trying to be too "indie-folksongy". It didn't sound like Guster at all.
Bad Bad World - 4 bongos
I can understand why they chose this as one of the first songs they released. It helped set up the "transition" between their old sound and this CD. It's simple, but catchy.
This Is How It Feels To Have A Broken Heart - 2 bongos
Harmonica and banjo, huh? Wasn't horrible, but I didn't particularly like it.
What You Call Love - 4 bongos
Ukelele much better.
That's No Way To Get To Heaven - 3 bongos
I didn't get a strong feeling from this song either way. I did like the harmonies after the title.
Jesus And Mary - 1 bongo
Just bad. I can't imagine myself listening to this one much. Apparently I don't like songs they write about Jesus.
Hercules and Do What You Want- 3 bongos
Again, not a strong reaction either way. I kind of feel these were "throw away" songs to fill out the album. It doesn't feel like there was a lot of effort behind them. Much like my critiques of the last few songs!
Well - 4 bongos
A good "change of pace". I usually like their softer-toned songs.
Jonah - 4 bongos
I think they should have included this on the "regular" album and have left off some of the last few.
Lost At Sea - 3 bongos
Another "throw away song" in my opinion. Not very memorable.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Michigan Week
I can't wait for this game Saturday.
Denard Robinson has more rushing yards than 91 teams.
I think that the way Michigan can make us pay is by having him roll out of the pocket and then throw deep down field. In this situation, our linebackers may overcommit to trying to stop him from running leaving the middle open. On SportsCenter, they just showed how having the DEs go right after him rather than falling back into contain, he doesn't have enough room to run and throws the ball earlier than he'd like. My hope is that the defenses he has faced have been nothing like our defense (top 20 in the country!). I think if we can knock him hard early, he will be more hesitant to take off and run.
I keep trying to remind myself that they almost lost to UMass and Indiana, and played a close game through three quarters vs. Bowling Green. It's Michigan/Michigan State, though, so their defense will certainly play at a high level.
I think we are better served playing them close all game rather than coming out to a big lead and letting them back in it in the second half, which we always do. I don't want them to have the momentum at the end of the game.
If we pull this one out, I am relieved that we have Illinois before the always competitive matchup with Northwestern. I don't think we can beat both Iowa and Penn State, but I am excited for the propect of finally playing in a BCS game.
Denard Robinson has more rushing yards than 91 teams.
I think that the way Michigan can make us pay is by having him roll out of the pocket and then throw deep down field. In this situation, our linebackers may overcommit to trying to stop him from running leaving the middle open. On SportsCenter, they just showed how having the DEs go right after him rather than falling back into contain, he doesn't have enough room to run and throws the ball earlier than he'd like. My hope is that the defenses he has faced have been nothing like our defense (top 20 in the country!). I think if we can knock him hard early, he will be more hesitant to take off and run.
I keep trying to remind myself that they almost lost to UMass and Indiana, and played a close game through three quarters vs. Bowling Green. It's Michigan/Michigan State, though, so their defense will certainly play at a high level.
I think we are better served playing them close all game rather than coming out to a big lead and letting them back in it in the second half, which we always do. I don't want them to have the momentum at the end of the game.
If we pull this one out, I am relieved that we have Illinois before the always competitive matchup with Northwestern. I don't think we can beat both Iowa and Penn State, but I am excited for the propect of finally playing in a BCS game.
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