While this is one of the more anticipated National Championship games in recent years, I think it will disappoint in terms of competitiveness and offense. The long layoff since the last time they have played will result in a slow start to the game. I think that this hurts Oregon more because they rely on a fast pace and rhythm to throw off the opposing defense. While their passing game matches up well against Auburn's suspect pass defense, I think the SEC speed of the Auburn linemen will pressure Darron Thomas enough to throw him out of sync.
The layoff could also lead to more injuries. The outcome to last year's BCS Championship game was set when Colt McCoy went down. Arkansas stormed back against OSU in the Sugar Bowl this year after top cornerback Chimdi Chekwa was injured and could have sealed the win with a late TD since Terrelle Pryor was hobbled with a foot injury. Since Oregon's backup QB is out with an injury, advantage Auburn even though each of their backups have attempted fewer than 10 passes this season.
From a kicking standpoint, both kickers missed only one extra point all season and have made 75% of their field goals. I think the fact that Auburn's kicker has attempted 8 more kicks this season gives him an experience edge. While Oregon didn't attempt many field goals this season, I expect that they will be in fewer 4th and short situations and will be tempted to kick more tonight.
Most predictions have each of these teams scoring over 30 points with a close final score. I predict the final is 34-20 Auburn with Cam Newton winning the MVP honors.
2 comments:
PRETTY DAMN GOOD.
Everything you said made sense, especially with the offenses being not as dominating.
Next time head to Vegas and say, "$1,000 on the 'under', please."
I was so excited because the halftime score was exactly had of my overall predicted total. Oregon just needed to give one of their points to Auburn.
I was wrong about the game being a blowout. I didn't expect Oregon's defense to give Cam Newton as many problems as they did. If he would have connected on 2-3 of the big plays, it would have been closer to my prediction.
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