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Sunday, March 13, 2011

Selection Sunday

I am glad that Ken Pomeroy's data has MSU listed with the most difficult SOS. 

-Michigan State played four tournament conference champions (Oakland, UConn, Washington, and whomever wins the Big 10 Tourney.)  If Duke wins the ACC, that will make 5.
- If you throw in teams that lost in their conference's championship, you get Texas, Syracuse, Tennessee Tech, and the loser of the Big 10 Championship.
-I still don't get how Penn State is given such a high SOS.

Going by today's Bracketology rankings, here's what I think is the easiest path to the championship (assuming the highest seeds win each time).
#6 - WVU - St. Johns and K State have been two of the hottest teams late in the season (ignoring the conference tournaments).  UNLV has some quality wins (Wisconsin, Va Tech).  WVU is a middle of the road Big East team and is undersized.

#3 - BYU - The 3 seeds all appeared in their conference tournament championship.  BYU has proved that losing Davies has made them extremely vulnerable.  In their 15 appearances since 1984, they have lost in the first round 10 times and in the second 5 times.  Jimmer was Jimmer last year and they still lost by 12 in the second round.

#2 - Duke - Call me cocky, but we almost beat them at home with Kyrie Irving.  This is a typical Duke team - they rely on outside shooting are vulnerable when they have an off night.  They lost every big road game they faced (which is hypocritical to say, of course, because MSU did too).  There's no way I want to see Kemba again, San Diego St is a big unknown, and the "team who shall not be named" is MSU's kryptonite.

#1 - Pitt - Pitt is limping into the tournament with a 3-3 record in their past few games (to be fair, two were due to buzzer beaters and the third went OT).  They haven't performed well in the tournament and I haven't seen anything lately that makes me think this year will be any different. 
then
#1 - ND - They rank 76th in the country in rebounding despite having fairly tall guards.  The possibility of facing another Hansbrough scares me a little.  They have some quality road wins and are one of the hottest teams in the country right now (12-2 to end the season).
then
#1 Kansas - I don't want to have to face OSU again.  We played them close on the road, but we were beneficiaries of a Sullinger off night, which he probably would remember (do you recall their rematch against Wisconsin?  Ouch.)  On paper, they appear to be the team destined to win.  Kansas has also lost only two games this year and would have a huge height advantage.  They have had some disappointing tournament appearances in recent years, so I think we may be more likely to pull off a huge upset against them.

1 comment:

Mikey D said...

I think I'd rather have K-State, but it's close between them and WVU.

Definitely BYU at #3.

Give me San Diego State at #2. If they make it to the Sweet 16, that's uncharted waters. Plus they don't play in that tough a conference. We could come out and punch them in the mouth.

Pittsburgh instead of Notre Dame next. I want no part of the outside shooting of Notre Dame. Can you just picture another blitzing 3-point barage against us? Those games in the middle of the conference season still haunt me.

If we make it to the Final Four, give me Notre Dame, then Kansas. I'm with you...I want no part of OSU.

Of course this will all change by 6 tonight.